Unusually active monsoon this month has pushed the total monsoon rainfall to a 6% excess since June 1, data from India Meteorological Department (IMD) showed. In the first 12 days of the month, August has recorded 28% excess rain, with the copious amounts of rain leaving parts of northwest India, including Delhi-NCR, flooded.
Heavy rainfall is likely to continue over Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, east and northeast India over the next seven days, IMD has warned, adding that isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is also very likely over Kerala, Tamil Nadu, South Interior Karnataka and Rayalaseema during next five days.
In August, there is 55.7% excess rain over northwest India; 46.8% excess over east and northeast India; 13.1% excess over central India and 2.7% excess over the southern peninsula. July saw 9% excess rain while June recorded a 11% deficiency.
Experts attributed the excess rain to multiple weather systems running concurrently.
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“There are multiple weather systems at play. There are two cyclonic circulations currently — one over northeast Rajasthan and another over southeast Uttar Pradesh. The monsoon trough is over the Indo-Gangetic Plains region. It is very active. The trough is likely to remain over the same area for next 4-5 days. So, there will be more rain this week. We are not expecting break monsoon in the next week. Rainfall has picked up in August also because ENSO neutral conditions have set in which is supporting monsoon,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president, climate and meteorology at Symet Weather.
{{/usCountry}}“There are multiple weather systems at play. There are two cyclonic circulations currently — one over northeast Rajasthan and another over southeast Uttar Pradesh. The monsoon trough is over the Indo-Gangetic Plains region. It is very active. The trough is likely to remain over the same area for next 4-5 days. So, there will be more rain this week. We are not expecting break monsoon in the next week. Rainfall has picked up in August also because ENSO neutral conditions have set in which is supporting monsoon,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president, climate and meteorology at Symet Weather.
{{/usCountry}}Meanwhile, latest model outputs indicate that transition to La Nina may be delayed. IMD’s Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) indicated that La Nina conditions are likely to develop during second half of the monsoon season. US’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued a La Nina watch in May, indicating that La Nina conditions are expected to be established soon. The La Nina watch issued last week said La Niña could form as early as June-August .
Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) said on August 5 that the sea surface temperature anomaly signature in the eastern and Central Pacific shows the near-neutral ENSO condition continued in July as well.
“The probability for the Pacific Ocean to remain in ENSO neutral condition is high until October. From November to January, the probabilities for the neutral conditions to continue or La Nina events to develop are almost equal (45-60%). The probability for the Pacific to remain in ENSO neutral conditions is high from February to April 2025,” INCOIS said.
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“La Nina has not really developed in full swing…. It is getting delayed but may develop towards the end of monsoon. Because of this monsoon will be active in September also,” said M Rajeevan, former secretary, ministry of earth sciences and climate scientist.
The term El Nino refers to the large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate phenomenon linked to a periodic warming in sea-surface temperatures across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. El Nino represents the warm phase of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle while La Nina is just the opposite. La Nina refers to the periodic cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific that occurs every 3 to 5 years or so. These phenomena are a part of natural climate variability but have an impact on rainfall and temperatures globally.
It was the warmest July on record making it the 14th warmest month in a row. Sea-surface temperatures in July were the second-warmest on record, ending a run of 15 consecutive, record-setting months, according to data and scientists from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).
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The average July global surface temperature was 1.21 degrees C above the 20th-century average, ranking as the warmest July in NOAA’s 175-year global record. July 2024 was also the 14th-consecutive month of record-high temperatures for the planet.
“Last month’s temperatures were above average across much of the global land surface except for Alaska, southern South America, eastern Russia, Australia and western Antarctica. Africa, Asia and Europe had their warmest Julys on record, while North America saw its second-warmest July,” National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said on Monday.