‘Another cyclone likely to form over Bay of Bengal as low-pressure area’: IMD
After cyclone Tauktae, another cyclone could be brewing with a low-pressure area likely to form over the east-central Bay of Bengal around May 23 that might intensify further into a depression and a cyclone, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned. If a cyclone forms, it will be called ‘Yaas’.
“We have indicated in our bulletin that there is a likelihood of formation of a low-pressure area over Bay of Bengal next week. In our outlook on cyclogenesis also we have indicated that the low-pressure system can intensify. As soon as it comes in our forecast skill range we will mention it in our forecasts,” said Sunitha Devi, in charge, cyclones at the IMD.
The sea surface temperature is above normal by 1-2 degree C both over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal making conditions favourable for the development of a cyclone. “The sea surface temperatures (SST) are around 31 degrees C over the Bay of Bengal also and all other oceanic and atmospheric conditions are favourable for cyclone development,” added Sunitha.
The extended cyclogenesis outlook by the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre, issued on May 13, had said, “there is also a ‘Low’ probability existing for cyclogenesis over east-central and adjoining northeast Bay of Bengal towards the latter half of week 2.”
“A low-pressure area is developing. It may intensify into a depression or a cyclone. As of now, the models are indicating that it is likely to move towards Myanmar and not towards the Indian coast,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president, climate change and meteorology at Skymet Weather.
Extremely severe cyclonic storm, Tauktae, which ravaged the west coast, particularly Mumbai, and made landfall over Gujarat coast has weakened to a cyclonic storm. It lay centred over Saurashtra, 190 kilometres south-southwest of Dessa and 105 kilometres south-southwest of Ahmedabad on Tuesday afternoon. Its intensity at the centre of the cyclone remained 75 to 85 kmph gusting to 95 kmph.
After entering land around 8.30 PM on Monday, Tauktae continued to move north northwestwards and crossed the Gujarat coast between Porbandar and Mahuva (Bhavnagar district) east of Diu with a maximum wind speed of 155 to 165 kmph gusting to 185 kmph. The intensity at the centre or eye of the storm was 160 to 170 kmph gusting to 190 kmph.
Remnants of the system and its interaction with an approaching western disturbance is likely to cause fairly widespread to widespread rainfall/thunderstorms over the Western Himalayan region and adjoining plains of northwest India during May 19 and 20 along with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and West Uttar Pradesh on May 19 and heavy rainfall at isolated places over Punjab on the same day. Isolated extremely heavy rain is also likely over Uttarakhand on May 19.