Covid-19: What you need to know today

The extension of the lockdown, announced on Tuesday by the Prime Minister, means that by May 3, India would have been in quarantine for 40 days.

The nationwide lockdown in India will continue till May 3 although the government will release on Wednesday guidelines for a phased exit in certain parts of the country. The extension of the lockdown, announced on Tuesday by the Prime Minister, means that by May 3, India would have been in quarantine for 40 days.

Migrant workers wearing face masks walk through Little India district as the spread of coronavirus disease (Covid-19) continues in Singapore, April 14, 2020. (Reuters photo)

That’s long by any measure; it is longer for a country of 1.3 billion people and with a GDP of $2.5 trillion. Assuming that the economy’s productivity has fallen by 50% in this period, that means a loss of $137 billion in GDP. And assuming that it has fallen by 60% (a more plausible number), the loss works out to $164 billion. Some people think even a 60% calculation is far too conservative.

The losses won’t stop at that though, and will continue even after the lockdown, which will have a lingering effect on supply chains and productivity — and the real number is likely to be higher.

Even as the Prime Minister announced the extension of the lockdown, Barclays put out a report predicting that the Indian economy will not grow in 2020 (calendar year). That’s actually a more optimistic prediction than the one put out by Nomura some time back which predicted that the economy could shrink by 0.5% this year (again, calendar year 2020). The most optimistic projection thus far is by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which said, also on Tuesday, that India would grow at 1.9% in 2020 (faster than most countries, including China, which is expected to grow at 1.2%). IMF also expects India to grow by 7.4% in 2021.

The IMF number seems implausible in the current context with India in recession territory. The only question that needs answering concerns the extent of recession, and how soon India can exit it. Which is why it is important that India announces a comprehensive fiscal package — for individuals and businesses.

Which is also why businesses, especially, will be watching the guidelines that the Prime Minister said would be issued tomorrow on a phased exit (this writer’s term, not the PM’s) from the lockdown in parts of the country. An analysis of Covid-19 infections by district showed that 50% of the infections were concentrated in just 20 of India’s 736 districts, with 382 districts not reporting any case at all till April 11. There’s been talk in government circles of dividing the country into zones based on infections, and allowing the resumption of business activity, conditionally, and with adequate precautions (mandatory social distancing, for instance) in areas where there are no infections. The Prime Minister did seem to suggest that this could happen from April 20 in some parts of the country, but only the guidelines will make this clear.

The 40-day number is interesting for another reason.

On April 1, HT reported a model by researchers at Cambridge University looking at various possible lockdown combinations. It found that the most effective was a straight 49-day lockdown, or a 21-five-28-five-18-day combination (a five-day break each time between a 21-day, a 28-day and an 18-day lockdown). In both cases, the rate of infection decreased. This, also called flattening the curve, is the aim of all lockdowns.

This buys time for countries to strengthen their health infrastructure, and for scientists and researchers to work on possible cures. A paper published on Monday by scientists at the University of Alberta, Canada, highlights one such candidate — remdesivir. This is a drug that was developed in 2014 to fight Ebola (it failed). In February, the scientists at the same university showed that it worked on the virus that causes Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, or Mers. The paper published on Monday claims it also works on Sars-CoV-2, the virus which causes Covid-19. According to the paper, remdesivir prevents the virus from replicating. This is the process by which the viral DNA or RNA mixes with the host cell’s own genetic material and pushes it to replicate the viral genome. Preventing a virus from replicating pretty much stops it in its tracks. The drug remdesivir, made by Gilead Sciences, is an experimental drug and has not been cleared for use anywhere in the world.