Covid 3rd wave: Another 2-3 weeks? 10 things SBI report on pandemic reveals

Published on Jan 19, 2022 01:42 PM IST
The SBI Research report said though Delhi, Mumbai reached the peak of the third wave, cases in Pune and Bengaluru are increasing. If proper restrictions are implemented, then the national peak may come in 2-3 weeks. 
Delhi has been observing weekend lockdown for the past two weeks.(PTI)
Delhi has been observing weekend lockdown for the past two weeks.(PTI)
By | Written by Poulomi Ghosh

The SBI (State Bank of India) Research report on the third wave of the Covid-19 pandemic says the ongoing wave is likely to stretch another three weeks maximum. The optimism comes from the massive decline in new caseloads in the top 15 districts which had the maximum infections, the report published on Tuesday said. India on Wednesday over 2.82 lakh new infections taking the number of active cases to 18,31,000, the highest in 232 days.

Here are 10 points the SBI report says about Covid third wave in India

1. Mumbai reached its peak on January 7 when it reported 20,971 cases, the report said.

2. Pune and Bengaluru are still showing an increase in daily new numbers. If other districts also implement strict measures and control the spread, then the national peak may come within 2-3 weeks after the Mumbai peak.

Covid 3rd wave: India unlikely to cross 4 lakh cases per day, scientists project

3. New cases in the top 15 districts, including 10 major cities, have declined to 37.4 in January 2022 from 67.9 in December 2021.

 

How many days did Omicron take to peak in these countries? (SBI Research report)
How many days did Omicron take to peak in these countries? (SBI Research report)

4. This decline is complemented by the increase of new cases being reported from districts. The overall share of rural districts in new cases has increased to 32.6% in January 2022 from the 14.4% in December 2021.

5. The rural share of these new cases are coming from Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Bihar, Jammu and Kashmir, Odisha and Rajasthan.

6. On the vaccination front, the SBI report said Andra Pradesh, Delhi, Gujarat, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and Uttarakhand have already vaccinated more than 70% of their eligible population with double doses. Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand are still lagging.

 

Covid 3rd wave peak: SBI Research report says Delhi, Mumbai, North 24 Parganas have reached the peak of 3rd wave. National peak is yet to come. 
Covid 3rd wave peak: SBI Research report says Delhi, Mumbai, North 24 Parganas have reached the peak of 3rd wave. National peak is yet to come. 

7. In other countries, the peak of a wave arrived within 54 days after cases started to increase, in general. Present peak time cases on an average are 3.3 times higher than the previous peak, the report said.

8. Among the top 15 districts, which contributed majorly to India's daily caseload, Delhi, North 24 Parganas and Mumbai reached their peak, the report said.

9. During the second wave of the pandemic in April-May 2021, the peak came at different dates. Mumbai had reached the peak of the 2nd wave first, 26 days before the national peak.

10. According to the SBI Research report, Delhi reached the 3rd wave peak on January 13 the day on which it reported over 28,000 cases. During the 2nd wave, Delhi had reached its peak 16 days before the national peak.

The trend of metro cities reaching the peak before districts continues in the third wave too, the report indicated. Peak refers to the worst Covid-19 situation in a state or a city after which the daily number of cases, positivity rates etc start going down. This can happen when the spread can be contained by maintaining Covid appropriate behaviour, restrictions on movement, vaccination etc.

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