Covid-19 R-value rising steadily in India; Kerala, N-E states tops list

The Union health ministry on Thursday said it will depute a six-member team to Kerala for effective Covid-19 management as the state reports a surge in daily cases.

Kerala and northeastern states are among the regions in India where R-value is climbing rapidly, an analysis by researchers at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences in Chennai shows. Kerala has the highest number of Covid-19 active cases and continues to have an R-value around 1.11. The R-factor indicates the speed at which Covid-19 infection is spreading in the nation.

The R-value of Pune was 0.85 between July 11-13 and 0.89 between July 15-20. For the national capital, the R-value between June 21- 26 was 0.80.(PTI)

"Looks like it will remain in the top spot for the next couple of weeks. The Northeast continues to have a very bad situation with most states having R-value more than one," Sitabhra Sinha of the Institute of Mathematical Sciences said, reported news agency PTI.

The Union health ministry on Thursday said it will depute a six-member team to Kerala for effective Covid-19 management as the state reports a surge in daily cases.

In the northeast, only Tripura has an R-value substantially lower than one while Manipur has gone only marginally below one. Among other states in the country, Uttarakhand has an R-value very close to one at the moment, the analysis stated.

The R-value of Delhi between June 21 and June 26 was 0.8. It declined to 0.66 between June 28 and July 6, but rose to 0.84 between July 4 and 20. Delhi on Thursday recorded 51 fresh Covid-19 cases with a positivity rate of 0.08 per cent. Active cases in Delhi stand at 554. Both the daily rise in cases and active infections have remained more or less the same.

Sinha said if the number of Covid-19 active cases is constant then the R-value is one as he explained the situation in the national capital. "Even if R momentarily goes over one, there is a possibility that you can contain it. For example, if the active cases are in hundred, you still have the possibility that you contain it before it goes completely out of hand. Once it goes to a few thousand and R is greater than one then the situation is dangerous," he added.

The R-value of Pune was 0.85 between July 11-13 and 0.89 between July 15-20. For Bengaluru, the R-value from July 7 to July 13 was 0.92. It increased marginally to 0.95 between July 13 and July 17. It dropped to 0.72 from July 17 to July 23.

The R-value of Mumbai was 0.96 between July 2 and July 4. It dropped to 0.89 between July 6 and July 9. It further dropped to 0.74 between July 22 and July 24. For Chennai, the R-value between June 29 to July 7 was 0.63. It shot up to 1.05 between July 16 and July 19. It was 0.94 between July 21 and July 24, showing signs of decline. In the case of Kolkata, the R-value was 0.80 between July 1 and July 13, followed by 0.91 between July 12 and July 17. It dropped to 0.86 between July 17 and July 24.

According to the analysis, when the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic was at its peak, the overall R-value in the nation was estimated to be 1.37 between March 9 to April 21. It declined to 1.18 between April 24 and May 1 and then to 1.1 between April 29 and May 7. Between May 9 and 11, the R-value was estimated to be around 0.98. It dropped to 0.82 between May 14 and May 30 and further to 0.78 from May 15 to June 26. The R-value however rose to 0.88 from June 20 to July 7 and then to 0.95 from July 3-22, it added.

Sinha said that when the number of Covid-19 active cases remains in the range of a few hundred and the R-value is near one, an outbreak can be controlled much easier. "India's overall active cases are fluctuating too much to get a reliable estimate, but data is pointing at a value close to one. It may tip over either way in the coming few days," he said.

The analysis added that an R-value of 0.95 means that every 100 infected people on an average pass on the infection to 95 other individuals. If the R-value is lesser than one, it means the number of newly infected people is lower than the number of infected people in the preceding period which means the disease incidence is going down.

The smaller the value of R, the faster the disease is on the decline. Conversely, if R is greater than one, then the number of infected people is increasing in each round. The bigger the number is than one, the faster the rate of spreading of Covid-19 in the nation, it further said.