Cyclone Dana set to make landfall near Dhamara: IMD
Storm surge is very likely to inundate low lying areas of Kendrapara, Bhadrak and Balasore districts of Odisha and East Medinipur districts of West Bengal.
Cyclone Dana formed over east central Bay of Bengal on Wednesday, and moved north-westwards gradually towards the Odisha and West Bengal coasts.
Dana is expected to cross north Odisha and West Bengal coasts between Puri and Sagar Island close to Bhitarkanika and Dhamara (Odisha) during mid-night of Thursday to morning of Friday as a severe Cyclonic Storm with a wind speed of 100-110 kmph gusting 120 kmph, India Meteorological Department has warned.
Dana over east central and adjoining west central Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards with a speed of 12 kmph and lay about 420 km southeast of Paradip (Odisha), 450 km south-southeast of Dhamara (Odisha) and 500 km south-southeast of Sagar Island (West Bengal) on Wednesday evening.
It had intensified from a deep depression on Tuesday to a cyclone on Wednesday early morning at 5.30 am clocking winds of 70 to 80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph. In less than 24 hours, Dana is expected to intensify into a severe cyclone with wind speed of 100 to 110 kmph gusting to 120 kmph. “It will intensify to severe cyclone on Wednesday night or early on Thursday because all conditions including warm ocean is contributing to intensification,” an official said.
“This cyclone will make landfall near Dhamara port and Bhitarkanika sanctuary in Odisha and Sagar Islands in West Bengal. Its most likely to make landfall on early morning of Friday. The models indicate that landfall will commence on island regions and around Baitarini and Brahmini rivers which is why landfall process will take longer than usual. Monsoon has retreated. During the post monsoon season 2-3 cyclones/depressions are expected to form over BoB and Arabian Sea. Sometimes 3- 4 such systems also form over Bay of Bengal,” said a senior IMD official.
“IMD has issued track prediction and landfall. Ocean is very warm with large heat potential. That should help the system to intensify,” said M Rajeevan, former secretary, ministry of earth sciences.
“The eastern coast of India, especially the states of Odisha and West Bengal, are the hotspots of multiple hazards such as floods, cyclones and droughts and face compounding impacts from these events. These states have also experienced a multi-fold increase in the number of tropical cyclones in the past few decades. As per CEEW analysis, 18 districts in Odisha and 9 districts in West Bengal are highly exposed to cyclones. Multi-hazard early warning systems play a crucial role in informing the decision-makers and the communities ahead of time to evacuate and reduce the potential losses,” said Vishwas Chitale, senior lead, Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW).
The sea surface temperature is 30 degree C over central and north Bay of Bengal. The tropical cyclone heat potential is IS >100 KJ/CM2 over west central BoB. Vertical wind shear is moderate, as per IMD.
“Enhanced poleward outflow is seen in mid latitude westerlies, high SST, poleward outflow, moderate wind shear would support further intensification of the system. Most of the modelds are indicating further intensification of cyclonic storm into severe cyclonic storm over northwest Bay of Bengal,” Tropical Cyclone Advisory by Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre said.
Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy rainfall (7-11 cm) at isolated places is very likely over Balasore, Bhadrak, Kendrapara, Jagatsingpur, Puri and Khorda, districts of Odisha commencing from evening of Wednesday and heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places and extremely heavy rainfall (≥ 21 cm) at isolated places over Baleswar, Mayurbhanj, Bhadrak, Kendrapara, Jagatsingpur Kendujhar, Jajpur, Cuttack and Dhenkanal, Khorda and Puri districts of Odisha on Thursday and Friday. Heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places with extremely heavy rainfall at isolated places over South & North 24 Parganas, East & West Medinipur, Jhargram, Howrah, Hooghly, Kolkata and Bankura districts of Gangetic West Bengal on Thursday and Friday. Light to moderate rainfall at most places is likely over south Jharkhand with heavy rainfall at isolated places on Thursday and heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places on Friday.
Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 gusting to 60 kmph is very likely to commence from Wednesday evening along and off Odisha-West Bengal coasts. It would gradually increase becoming gale wind speed reaching 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph from Thursday morning and 100-110 kmph gusting to 120 kmph along & off north Odisha and east Medinipur district of West Bengal; Gale wind speed reaching 60-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph is likely along & off south Odisha and remaining districts of coastal West Bengal from Thursday night till Friday morning and decrease gradually thereafter.
Storm surge of 1 to 2 m height above astronomical tide is very likely to inundate low lying areas of Kendrapara, Bhadrak and Balasore districts of Odisha and East Medinipur districts of West Bengal during the time of landfall. Storm surge of 0.5 to 1 m height above astronomical tide is very likely to inundate low lying areas of South 24-Parganas district of West Bengal and Jagatsingpur district of Odisha during the time of landfall.
Sea condition is likely to be rough to very rough from Wednesday evening onwards and would become ‘high to very high (6 to 14 m wave hieght) from Thursday morning and Friday forenoon.
IMD has advised suspension of fishing operations till Friday over Central and North Bay of Bengal. Heavy impact is expected over districts of Odisha (Baleswar, Bhadrak, Kendrapara, Jajpur, Jagatsinghpur, Puri, Khorda, Mayurbhanj, Kendujhar, Cuttack, Dhenkanal) and West Bengal (East and West Medinipur, South & North 24 Parganas, Jhargram, Howrah, Hooghly, Kolkata, and Bankura). There is likely to be major damage to thatched houses/ huts. Roof tops may blow off. Unattached metal sheets may fly. Trees can get uprooted and branches can break. There can be damage to power and communication lines and flooding of escape routes; damage to embankments/ salt pans; localized flooding of roads, water logging in low lying areas and closure of underpasses mainly in urban areas of the above region; occasional reduction in visibility due to heavy rainfall; disruption of traffic in major cities and roadways due to water logging in roads and poor visibility due to heavy rain leading to increased travel time and incidents.
According to RMSI, a global GIS consulting and risk management company, this cyclone will likely impact 34000 buildings, 1200 essential facilities, 3 railway stations, ~440 km of road length, ~5500 km of electricity network, and ~250 km of oil and gas network. Essential facilities include schools, healthcare, fire stations, and police stations. This impact is concentrated in Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapara, Puri, Bhadrak, Baleswar, Cuttack, Ganjam, and Jajpur districts as per RMSI’s modeling for Odisha.
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