Northeast states records rain deficit, rise in temperature amid climate crisis
Rainfall in northeast between June and September has shown a sharp decline in recent years
Reduced precipitation during the south-west monsoon and higher temperatures are changing living conditions across northeast India, particularly in strife-torn Manipur, which is facing a large rainfall deficiency of 48% since June 1 this year.
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From an epoch of excess monsoon rain until around the mid to late 1990s and a period of normal rainfall till the early 2000s, rainfall in northeast India between June and September has shown a sharp decline in recent years, annual reports of the India Meteorological Department show.
In Manipur, the impact is more pronounced, with nearly 50% decline from the long-period average between 1961 to 2010; over Nagaland the reduction is up to 20%.
The weather bureau’s state- wise annual climate report for 2022, which document long-term trends, show a 0.5 degree Celsius warming compared to the 1981 to 2010 base period. With its unique biodiversity and several tribal indigenous groups sharing the landscape, the northeastern states have become a climate hotspot.
“Our analysis of long-term rainfall trends (1950s onwards) also shows a declining trend in rainfall over parts of northeast states, including north Manipur, Nagaland, Arunachal Pradesh and east Assam. This may be due to the weak inland reach of monsoon flow and depressions in the recent decades,” said Roxy Mathew Koll, climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology in Pune. “Based on our research, the rapid warming in the Indian Ocean is a key contributor to the weakening monsoon flow over the larger Indian subcontinent. It’s possible that the same applies for the northeast states, though we need a detailed region focused study.”
Declining rainfall is impacting paddy growing valley regions in Manipur and its supply to the hill regions.
“Paddy is not viable any more in many regions. In Manipur, agriculture is rain-fed. Hill regions have already moved to horticulture and the valley regions are now shifting to pisciculture,”said T. Brajakumar Singh, Deputy Director, Directorate of Environment, Manipur. “We have recommended shifting to certain climate- resilient crops.”
Slope agriculture is particularly badly impacted because of high erosion during extreme rainfall and very poor soil fertility,” Singh said. “Reduction in rainfall has been impacting people seriously in the past 5-6 years. This year, there is also conflict and fear.”
There has to be a change in cropping patterns to food security concerns, he added.“In Manipur, there is a 48% rain deficiency this season, which is huge. Churachandpur has 86% deficiency, Chandel 82% and Tamenglong 50%. This has obviously impacted agriculture and food severely,” Singh said.
Rainfall has been declining in Manipur for the past 10 years, according to Indubhushan, president of Bharatiya Kisan Sangh in Manipur. Representatives of the farmers’ organisation called on Manipur governor Anusuiya Uikey and requested supply of alternate crop seeds, saying that paddy cultivation in the state was lower by 30% due to scanty rainfall, according to a tweet by the Raj Bahawan on August 9.
“Farmers near hill regions are also often caught in crossfire (of the ethnic conflict),” said Singh. “That has also impacted agriculture.” There has been long delays in sowing due to scanty rainfall and ethnic violence, he added.
There is a huge gap in understanding and documenting how climate change is impacting lives of people in the northeast, said said Nemthianngai Guite, associate professor, School of Social Sciences at Jawaharlal Nehru University. “Climate change has definitely increased the vulnerability of the region, including Manipur, which is dealing with ethnic strife and conflict,” Guite said. “Climate change is also impacting the availability of nutrition- rich traditional foods of the hills.”
“It’s important to document groundwater availability. The Department of Science and Technology’s climate vulnerability report already lists Assam, Mizoram and Arunachal Pradesh as highly vulnerable, but Manipur is also extremely vulnerable,” she added.
A similar declining trend in rainfall is also seen for Meghalaya but that hasn’t impacted paddy cultivation yet. “We get around 1,200 mm rainfall on average annually. Rainfall is decreasing, but still sufficient for one paddy crop. The rise in temperature, however, is being felt with a shift in the past 30 years I have been in service,” said K N Kumar, chairman, Meghalaya Farmers’(Empowerment) Commission. “There were no fans in buildings, but now almost all have installed fans and even air-conditioners in some cases.”
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There is a 6% rain deficiency in the country since June 1, with 25% rain deficiency over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura; 28% over Gangetic West Bengal; 35% over Jharkhand; 30% over Bihar; and 45% over Kerala, among others.
Mean temperature has increased by 0.62 degree in 100 years is over Nagaland, according to the Met department. Maximum temperature has risen by 0.83 degree in past 100 years. The trends are similar in Manipur, with an increasing trend of 0.68 degree in 100 years for annual mean temperature, and 0.91 degree rise in 100 years for maximum temperature.