‘Division in anti-DMK votes may help party’
The reason, according to political experts, is a divided opposition given that the anti-DMK votes are being split between the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and the Bharatiya Janata Party
The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-led Tamil Nadu government, after being at the helm for three years, despite witnessing visible anti-incumbency in several regions seems to be expecting benefits in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. The reason, according to political experts, is a divided opposition given that the anti-DMK votes are being split between the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and the Bharatiya Janata Party.
A cross section of voters in southern Tamil Nadu said that their primary issues against the ruling state government were “lack of government jobs and price rise”. Though it may not affect the DMK in the upcoming elections, the party will have to put up a tough fight, two years from now, in the 2026 assembly elections, according to the experts. According to political analyst Maalan Narayanan, the INDIA bloc — DMK is a part of which — is in a comfortable situation here now due to “the strong rainbow alliance of the DMK, arithmetic strength and the ruling party’s welfare schemes such as ₹1,000 for women heads of households”.
“The welfare schemes are targeted to go to deserving beneficiaries, which could anger those who aren’t receiving the assistance,” said Narayanan. “They (the DMK) will face the anger of those who are not receiving ₹1,000 monthly,” he said.
On the other hand, some schemes such as free bus journey for women are receiving mixed feedback. “I am humiliated by the drivers and conductors every time I take the white board bus,” said S Anusya, who runs a small flower business in Ramanathapuram. “We are able to save a lot with the ₹1,000 cash allowance but we are not saving much by not paying for the bus ticket and we may as well pay for it and keep our respect.”
Another voter R Sujatha in Madurai said, “We can pay for the bus but we are not able to meet our expenses because of inflation.”
The free breakfast scheme for school children is a “major hit” among women since it has lessened their burden, according to the people.
The DMK’s ‘Puthumai Penn’ (modern women) scheme — changed from AIADMK’s ‘Thalikku Thangam’ (gold for mangalsutra) scheme— has also evoked mixed response. Instead of issuing gold coins, the scheme was restructured for girl students from government schools who enrol for higher education and would be given a monthly aid of ₹1,000 to help them complete their studies. It was lauded as a progressive scheme. “But, I have two daughters and my elder one got gold assistance from the government,” says a homemaker P Lakshmi from Theni. “Yes, the cash is helpful for her studies but after she finishes it would have still helped our family to receive gold assistance for her marriage.”
Bipolar to triangular contest
The bipolar contest turned triangular after the AIADMK cut ties with the BJP last October. “A united AIADMK would have been stronger and the factions are leading to a splitting of votes which has come to the advantage of the DMK and BJP,” said a political expert.
Also in the race is Tamil nationalist S Seeman’s Naam Tamizhar Katchi (NTK) which was the third largest party in the 2021 assembly elections, with nearly 7% vote share. Seeman continues to attract young voters — despite his controversial policies and ideology — who are seeking a change from the Dravidian majors, feel the experts. “I want to vote for Seeman but my family feels we shouldn’t split the DMK and INDIA bloc votes,” said a young doctor, R Trinity from Kanyakumari.
“For the first time in Tamil Nadu we are seeing a three front contest barring the NTK,” said Naarayanan. “The anti-incumbency will not affect the DMK now. The division of votes has come to the advantage of the ruling party. The anti-DMK votes will not entirely go to the AIADMK and the anti-AIADMK votes will not go entirely to the DMK because there is a third option that is BJP. And the anti-BJP votes will get divided between the DMK and AIADMK.”
The BJP which has been focussing in the southern states is slowly gaining support across Tamil Nadu compared to its base in the 2021 assembly elections. This would help them increase their vote share but it remains to be seen if that would translate into winning seats.
“The margins in this election will be slender,” said Narayanan. “It depends on local factors such as candidates, electioneering at the grassroots level, money power and caste factor in the semi urban and rural areas.”