Expect a mild winter with fewer ‘cold wave’ days: IMD
IMD’s data indicated that November has been exceptionally dry for the entire country, particularly for northwest India.
After recording high temperatures during autumn, in October and November, winter – through December, January and February – is likely to be mild with fewer cold wave days, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its forecast on Monday.
This was the second warmest November for the country since 1901 when day temperatures are considered, and third warmest since 1901 when it comes to mean temperatures. Over northwest India, it was the warmest November since 1901 in terms of mean temperatures and second warmest in terms of day and night temperatures, the IMD said.
HT reported on November 2 that India experienced its warmest October in 123 years, with unprecedented night-time and mean temperatures across the country. October was the fourth consecutive month of record-breaking night-time temperatures since the measurements began in 1901, following similar records in July, August and September.
Now, IMD has said the December-to-February period is likely to be rather warm with above normal temperatures likely over most parts of the country, except south Peninsular India where below-normal temperatures are likely. Below normal cold wave days are expected over most parts of northwest, central, east and northeast India, IMD said.
It is considered a cold wave when the minimum temperature is less than the 10th percentile of daily value (10% of days that are coldest or below a certain temperature threshold) and at the same time the daily minimum temperature is below 15 degrees Celsius. If such conditions are met for three consecutive days, then a cold wave event is declared.
“Normally, we see 5-6 cold wave days during December to February over the cold wave region, which includes northwest, central, east and northeast India. This time, we can expect 2-4 fewer cold wave days compared to average,” IMD director general M Mohapatra explained.
IMD’s data indicated that November has been exceptionally dry for the entire country, particularly for northwest India. From October 1 to December 1, there was 15% deficiency in rainfall over the country with 77.2 % over northwest India. During November, there was 54.5% rain deficiency over the country, with 79.9% deficiency over northwest India.
“There was no active western disturbance in November and there was only one cyclonic circulation or activity towards end of the month, ‘Fengal’, which impacted the Tamil Nadu coast. So, it has been very dry during the past two months,” Mohapatra said.