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Extended range forecasts suggest poor monsoon till July 6
There has been a 54% rain deficiency in the country since June 1 and extended range forecasts indicates that rains may be patchy in the interior parts of the country till around July 6
Extended range forecasts by both India Meteorological Department and private meteorological forecasters like Skymet Weather have indicated that rains may be patchy in the interior parts of the country till around July 6.
Skymet Weather shared their extended forecast on Monday which shows most parts of central and northwest India are ‘extremely’ and ‘severely’ dry till July 6.
“Skymet Extended Range Prediction System (ERPS) is projecting a dismal outlook for the next 4 weeks, between June 9 and July 6. Agriculture heartland is looking rather cracked and parched. This coincides with the crucial time of sowing or at least preparing the field, with the hope of impending decent rains. Inadequate rains over the central and western parts, the core monsoon zone will find it difficult to absorb the drying effects, rather early in the season. It is likely to leave the poor farmer in a state of indecisiveness choosing between the type of crop and the crop cycle,” Skymet said in a statement on Monday.
IMD’s forecast indicates patchy rain coverage in the week of June 30 to July 6. There has been a 54% rain deficiency in the country since June 1 with 53% deficiency over south peninsula; 80% deficiency over central India; 10% deficiency over northwest India and 53% deficiency over east and northeast India.
“Even though (Cyclone) Biparjoy will bring rainfall to Gujarat and Rajasthan, we are not expecting monsoon onset over central India for nearly a week. Monsoon coverage of interior parts of the country has not picked up. I do not expect the monsoon to pick up properly until June 18 because Biparjoy, once weakens after landfall, will remain a low pressure area and will not allow monsoon winds to pick up. It will in fact divert the moisture towards extreme northwest India. We don’t think June’s deficiency will be covered,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president, climate and meteorology, Skymet Weather.
“Extended range forecasts are not very accurate because of the long time lag. But some models are indicating dry conditions even in early July. Forecasts are more accurate around 5 days in advance,” added Palawat.
“Monsoon conditions are not very good. There could be a delay in monsoon reaching central India. As I said earlier, the Bay of Bengal branch of monsoon should wake up and become active. It’s unlikely to reach central India before June 21 as per IMD’s models,” said M Rajeevan, former secretary, ministry of earth sciences.
Southwest monsoon has further advanced into some more parts of Karnataka, Konkan, remaining parts of Tamil Nadu, some more parts of Andhra Pradesh, some more parts of northwest Bay of Bengal, most parts of Sub-Himalayan, West Bengal and Sikkim and some parts of Bihar on Monday, IMD said.
Maximum Temperatures were in the range of 42-44 degree C over parts of East Uttar Pradesh, East Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Bihar and Odisha on Sunday. Severe heat wave conditions prevailed in isolated pockets over Odisha, Bihar and Coastal Andhra Pradesh and heat wave conditions in isolated pockets over Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand and Telangana. No significant change in maximum temperatures is expected over most parts of the country except over Gujarat where temperatures are likely to fall by 4-6 degree C and over Rajasthan by 2-3 degree C during the next 5 days. Severe heat wave conditions are likely to continue in isolated pockets over Chhattisgarh, Odisha and Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam during next 2 days and heat wave conditions thereafter during subsequent 3 days. Heat wave conditions are likely to continue in isolated pockets over south Uttar Pradesh, Gangetic West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand during next 5 days, IMD warned.
“There will be rainfall over the west coast due to Biparjoy approaching the Indian coast but I cannot say that it will pull the monsoon current along. It may enhance wind speed and rainfall briefly but once it dissipates around June 16, monsoon will be on its own again. We are not seeing very strong signals yet of the monsoon covering interior parts of the country,” an IMD official said on Sunday.
“Sowing will get delayed due to delayed onset of monsoon. IMD is predicting a normal monsoon which may be normal for the season as a whole but it’s critical to know if there will be gaps during the season and well distributed. We expect dry spells in July and August, that’s when most crop losses happen. Rain-fed crops dry up. If you look at the cropping pattern then people are moving towards water intensive crops like paddy, cotton, sugar cane because there is no support for other crops. So, 1) we have to shift to pulses oilseeds, not water intensive ones to adapt better 2) critical irrigation during monsoon gaps tailored for life saving irrigation during dry periods 3) if there is residual risk then we need proper insurance mechanism which is not available,” said GV Ramanjaneyulu, executive director at the Centre for Sustainable Agriculture on Thursday.
IMD declared monsoon onset over Kerala on Thursday (June 8), seven days after it normally arrives in the state on June 1, even as climate scientists and meteorologists warned that it is expected to be a weak onset due to the severe Cyclone Biparjoy. The progress of the weather system that brings rain across the country is likely to be slow in its first week, officials had said.
