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Forecast see chances of El Nino onset this year
El Nino conditions may develop in July-September, raising concerns for India's monsoon and agriculture, with forecasts indicating potential warming impacts.
New Delhi: El Nino conditions may emerge in July-August-September this year, early forecasts suggest.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) bulletin issued on December 29 suggests that there is a 48% chance of El Nino emerging in the second half of monsoon; a 45% of ENSO neutral conditions and a less than 10% probability of La Nina conditions during those months.
India Meteorological Department has also shared in its forecast on Thursday that there is a higher probability of El Nino conditions emerging in the June-July-August period. “It is too early to say with certainty during which month El Nino will emerge. These are very early forecasts and there will be more clarity in the coming months,” said M Mohapatra, director general, IMD during Thursday’s briefing. The forecast has raised concerns among meteorologists and climate scientists as El Nino years are associated with weak monsoon and very harsh summers in India.
La Niña is favored to continue for the next month or two, NOAA has said with a 68% chance of transition to ENSO-neutral conditions most likely during January to March period. El Nino’s likely emergence during monsoon is particularly concerning because monsoon is the lifeblood of India’s economy, with 51% of India’s farmed area, accounting for 40% of production, being rain-fed and 47% of the population dependent on agriculture for livelihood.
It is also important to recall that the 2023-24 El Nino event had led to record breaking heat globally with 2024 with global average temperature during July 2023 – June 2024 hitting a record high at 0.76 degree C above the 1991-2020 average and 1.64 degree C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average, European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service had said. The El Nino in 2023 developed rapidly during July-August, and reached moderate strength by September, 2023 and peaking during November - January 2023-24. Another El Nino emerging in 2026 would mean more temperature records as it accentuates the warming influence of climate change. The World Meteorological Organisation has cautioned that it should be factored that naturally occurring climate events such as La Nina and El Nino on climate patterns are taking place in the broader context of human-induced climate change, which is increasing global temperatures, exacerbating extreme weather and climate, and impacting seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns.
“With a La Nina around, we saw a relatively longer monsoon season. Moving to El Nino like conditions in 2026 could mean a shorter monsoon season. And a relatively hotter year than 2025,” said Roxy Mathew Koll, climate scientist and author, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
HT had reported in May last year that there is an 80% chance that a year between 2025 and 2029 will be warmer than the record-breaking 2024, WMO has forecast.
The report “WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2025-2029)” has also projected that there is a 70% chance that the five-year average warming for 2025-2029 will surpass 1.5 degree C leading to frequent and severe heat waves, droughts, and extreme weather events.
According to Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), 2025 is currently tied with 2023 to be the second-warmest year on record. HT reported on Friday that India recorded its eighth warmest year in 2025 despite a relatively mild summer and robust monsoon.
“As of now, we can say that evolving El Nino is expected around commencement of monsoon. Rainfall can get affected due to this. Monsoon rain can be below par. But this forecast should be taken with caution because due to the spring barrier forecast can change. But most of the models are indicating evolving El Nino conditions during monsoon,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president, climate and meteorology, Skymet Weather.
“Yes, predictions suggest a transition to El Nino from La Nina. But the probability is not that high (around 50%). We need to wait and watch. If an El Nino develops, it could harm monsoon. But it is too early for us to worry about monsoon. Probably after 2-3 months we may have a fair idea what could be the impact of El Nino,” said M Rajeevan, former secretary, ministry of earth sciences. “But this development will surely add to ongoing warming trend in global temperatures. I am not sure whether we will breach 1.5 this year, but definitely fast approaching that situation. We have seen even a La Nina could not stop the warming trend caused by increase in greenhouse gases.
There is no option except to mitigate global warming, reduce fossil fuel emissions,” he added.
