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High-octane campaigning in Kerala draws to close, experts predict ‘close battle’
Going by the ground situation, it looks like it is anyone’s game as there is no wave in favour of any coalition in the state.
The high-pitch campaign for April 6 assembly elections in Kerala came to an end on Sunday with all three formations - the ruling Left Democratic Front, opposition United Democratic Front and BJP-led National Democratic Alliance - claiming a clear edge. About 2.67 crore voters will exercise their franchise on Tuesday across 40,771 polling booths to elect 140 legislators.
On the final day, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi carried out a roadshow in Kozhikode (north Kerala) and flew down to Thiruvananthpuram. Union finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman led BJP rallies in the state capital and outskirts.
“The UDF is well placed and we are sure to form the next government in the state,” said Gandhi, also a member of parliament from the state, who toured extensively in the state to whip up the party’s chances.
Sitharaman, however, said the wind is blowing in the NDA’s favour. “I can see PM Modi everywhere and the chorus for change is louder,” she said.
Going by the ground situation, it looks like it is anyone’s game as there is no wave in favour of any coalition in the state. In the last leg, the UDF has managed to lessen the gap by “better selection” of candidates and Gandhi siblings’ (Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra) intense campaigning that stopped faction feud in the lead party Congress. Rahul Gandhi visited Kerala on three occasions and spent more than a week in the state for campaigning.
Resurgent UDF shows the state is most unlikely to change its four-decade-old political script (changed governments after five years since 1982) of alternating government after every election, say political observers and election experts.
True, the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) was much ahead in campaigning and visibility giving an impression that there will be a continuation of power, but experts say the situation is almost similar to the India Shining campaign of the Vajpayee era. In the 2004 election, the NDA let loose a big campaign called India Shining citing robust growth rate eyeing a continuation of power but lost to the Congress.
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A distant third runner, the BJP-led NDA, is also upbeat and it is likely to improve its vote share this time. Other than the BJP winning a couple of seats, the state is likely to retain its bi-polar polity. But whose votes the BJP-led NDA cuts into will be a decisive factor in the poll, experts say. In the outgoing assembly, the party had a single seat (Nemom in Thiruvananthapuram) and it is likely to go up to three.
“It is a close match. The LDF managed to build a public perception that continuity will be there but in the last lap, there is a considerable dent in this perception,” said political theorist and author J Reghu. Former vice-chancellor of the Central University of Kerala and political scientist Dr G Gopakumar said a split in anti-incumbency votes between the NDA and the UDF will only favour the LDF.
“The BJP is campaigning vigorously and if it attracts more votes it will damage UDF’s prospects,” he said, adding a rise in the saffron camp’s vote share will be a threat to the UDF.
Reghu, however, begs to differ, saying people of the state are known for their “tactical voting.” Experts like him say there is pent up anger in the party against CM Pinarayi Vijayan’s “autocratic style of functioning” and it will reflect in ballots.
It is a fact that almost all pre-poll surveys have predicted an edge to the ruling left. But political observers and party watchers say things are not that easy for the left to buck the trend. Its public relations blitz has created a good atmosphere and this euphoria will not reflect in ballots. They say early warnings have forced the UDF out of its slumber and overcome some of the inherent weaklings like faction politics in the do or die battle.
One of the factors for the left’s euphoria is its victory in the December 2020 local body elections that came when the government was in the thick of many scandals like the gold smuggling case and arrest of the then party secretary Kodiyeri Balakrishnan’s son Bineesh Kodiyeri in money laundering case related to the drug trade. Experts say the same narrative may not work in the assembly polls too.
“You can’t scale both, local body and assembly elections, with the same parameters. Other than a loud publicity campaign I don’t see any tangible reason for the left come back,” said Reghu.
“The UDF failed to project a strong leader and many new faces (candidates) at the eleventh hour may affect its prospects,” said Gopakumar. But Congress leaders defend it, saying it has been the custom of the UDF to release the list late but this time it managed it without much drama or delay.
“More than half of our candidates are new faces and grassroots workers. I am sure a majority of them will romp home and we are comfortably placed,” said Chandy, the star campaigner of the UDF.
But the LDF said there was no looking back for it and it was steadily maintaining its upper hand. “It seems the UDF has admitted defeat. That is why even in the dying hours, opposition leader Ramesh Chennithala is raising absurd charges against the government,” said CPI(M) acting secretary A Vijayaraghavan.
The BJP has paraded some of its top leaders, including PM Modi and home minister Amit Shah, and raked up the contentious Sabarimala issue. It has also flaunted its favourite card, Metro Man E Sreedharan, to curry favours with voters. The 88-year-old is locked in a fierce three-cornered battle in Palakkad.
“The party will rewrite the poll history of the state,” said party state president K Surendran, adding that people were fed up with the alternate regimes.
While the LDF is concentrating more on social security schemes and development activities, both Congress and the BJP have harped on alleged commissions and omissions of the left government. In Ernakulam district Twenty20, a corporate party, is posing a big threat to major players. It is contesting eight seats in Ernakulam.
“The poll picture is quite hazy. There is a silent anti-incumbency factor. I feel the state will stick to its four-decade-old script,” said actor and writer Joy Mathew.
