Karnataka assembly election: Setback for ruling BJP? Key takeaways from opinion polls

At least three opinion polls or pre-election surveys have predicted that the Congress would return to power in the state.

Ahead of the Karnataka assembly election 2023, to be held on May 10, at least three opinion polls or pre-election surveys have predicted that the Congress would return to power in the state, while an opinion poll by Zee News-Matrize has projected that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will emerge as the single-largest party.

Karnataka Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai and Congress leader Siddaramaiah.

The ABP-CVoter opinion poll predicted that the Congress is likely to form the government in Karnataka, while the BJP could lose big and the Janata Dal's (Secular) performance could be quite below the mark.

Key takeaways from recent opinion polls on Karnataka assembly election 2023

1. According to the ABP News-CVoter opinion poll, out of 224 assembly seats in Karnataka, the Congress may win between 107 and 119 seats. The BJP is likely to bag 74 to 86 seats, while the JD(S) can secure 23 to 35 seats.

2. The poll suggests the ruling BJP could be five per cent behind the Congress in terms of vote share. The Congress could end up securing a 40 per cent vote share, while the BJP 35 per cent. The JD(S) may get 17 per cent of the votes.

Seats share (total seats – 224)

BJP: 74 to 86 seats

Congress:107 to 119 seats

JD(S): 23 to 35 seats

Others: 0 to 5 seats

Vote share

BJP - 35%

Congress - 40%

JD(S) - 17%

Others – 8%

3. Another opinion by India Today-CVoter predicted that the ruling BJP is likely to lose the assembly election in Karnataka. According to the opinion poll, the BJP is expected to get just 74-86 seats, down 24 from what the party had got in 2018.

Seats share

Congress: 107-119

BJP: 74-86

JD(S): 23-35

Vote share

Congress: 40%

BJP: 35%

JD(S): 17%

4. According to the opinion poll, Congress leader Siddaramaiah is the most favoured leader with 42 per cent for the chief minister's post followed by BJP's Basavraj Bommai (31 per cent).

5. Zee News-Matrize Karnataka elections opinion poll released on Monday claimed that the ruling BJP will emerge as the single-largest party, followed by the Congress and the JD(S) in the assembly elections.

Seats share

BJP: 103-115

Congress: 79-91

JD (S): 26-36

Others: 1-3

Vote share

BJP: 42%

Congress: 40%

JD(S): 15%

Others: 3%

6. The Zee News-Matrize also revealed that Prime Minister Narendra Modi could be the gamechanger in the 2023 Karnataka assembly Elections, while Rahul Gandhi's ‘Bharat Jodo Yatra’ will yield precious little benefit for the Congress.

7. Zee News has claimed that it was the largest sample size among all opinion polls for the Karnataka assembly Elections so far as it included 1.80 lakh males and 1.12 lakh females from rural as well as urban areas participated in its opinion poll conducted between March 29 and 30.

8. Meanwhile, Kannada news channel Suvarna News 24x7 and Jan Ki Baat also conducted their second and final pre-poll survey and it predicted that the BJP will emerge as the single-largest party in the May 10 poll. The pre-poll however placed Congress slightly ahead of BJP in terms of vote share.

9. A pre-poll survey conducted by the Kannada outlet Eedina said the Congress appears to be headed for a clear and comfortable majority with 32-140 seats. The BJP is predicted to win 57-65 seats, with a vote share of 33 per cent.

10. BJP's BL Santhosh called the survey "cooked up" as he tweeted: "It's really astonishing that he (Yogendra Yadav) finds time amidst his padayatras and agitations to cook up surveys to please his masters...!!!".