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Kerala’s high caseload, double digit TPR worries medical experts
Out of the 18 worst affected districts in the country, 10 are in Kerala, where districts such as Malapppuram have over 15% TPR (test positivity rate).
Kerala, a small state with barely 3% of India’s population, has been accounting for more than half of country’s Covid-19 virus cases recently, and the medical experts feel that the trend of rising cases in the state is not a good sign. However, the government has pointed out that the health infrastructure in the state is not overburdened.
Statistics show that there has been no sign of flattening of the curve and cases have increased steadily for more than two months in the state, a grim reality, which is also reflected in the state’s double digit test positivity rate for more than a month now.
What adds to Kerala’s intriguing battle with the pandemic is the fact that the state claims to have done well in managing the case fatality rate, vaccination drive, testing and tracing of contacts and hospitals have not been overflowing with patients recently. But before the state could get a handle on its challenges, some experts are already warning about the possible onset of a “third wave”.
“The consistent surge indicates that this may be the beginning of a fresh wave. [Whether] you name it the second or the third wave, it is a fact [that the] cases are going up alarmingly,” said public health expert Dr S S Lal, who earlier worked with the World Health Organisation.
Internal medicine expert Dr N M Arun, who has been studying the case trajectory of the state, agreed. “The state is going through a fresh wave and if the cases [continue to] rise like this, [the] system will drain,” he said.
Out of the 18 worst affected districts in the country, 10 are in Kerala, where districts such as Malapppuram have over 15% TPR (test positivity rate). The district also has an active caseload of 21,603 as on Tuesday and its recovery rate is also slow. The TPR is the percentage of all Covid tests that turn out to be positive.
Malappuram, Thrissur, Ernakulam, Kozhikode, Palakkad and Kasarago are the six districts where the average TPR has stayed in double digits for more than a week. Experts note that most infections are spreading through home isolation cases. According to the state’s latest sero survey, around 50% of the population is still susceptible to the virus.
“Since half of the population is not affected, we have to vaccinate them on a war footing. We are in touch with the Union government,” said health minister Veena George.
Government claims that despite the high volume of cases, pressure is not visible on the health system. Out of the 4,250 ICU and ventilator beds available in both private and public facilities, 2,300 are occupied, including by 1,500 critically ill patients and 800 requiring ventilator support. The state also has 250 metric tonne oxygen in stock.
Kerala reported 22,414 Covid cases on Wednesday with a TPR of 11.37%. It also reported 108 deaths, taking total Covid fatalities to 17,211. Malappuram district topped the chart again with 3,691 fresh cases of the infection.
