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La Nina may bring colder winter to north, say experts
To be sure, naturally occurring climate events such as La Nina and El Nino are taking place in the broader context of human-induced climate change, which is increasing global temperatures, exacerbating extreme weather, and impacting seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns
North India, including Delhi and the national capital region (NCR) may see a colder winter this year according to meteorologists , who attribute this to La Nina conditions that are expected to prevail from October to December .
“We can expect La Nina conditions to set in during the next few months. We will soon issue a forecast on temperatures for the post monsoon season,” said M Mohapatra, director general, India Meteorological Department.
La Nina refers to the periodic large-scale cooling of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, coupled with changes in the tropical atmospheric circulation, including changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns. Typically, La Nina brings climate impacts that are the opposite of El Nino (which refers to the warming of oceans), especially in tropical regions.
There’s a 71% chance of La Nina during October - December , National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said last week. Thereafter, La Nina is favoured but chances decrease to 54% in December-February .
A weak La Nina emerged last December but did not sustain. From early December 2024 through February 2025, below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) persisted in the east-central and central Pacific. During February-March 2025 and late May-August, above-average SSTs were observed in the eastern Pacific. Since the end of March, SSTs have returned to near average across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
A La Nina may mean a colder winter in Delhi-NCR. “We cannot say winter will be severe but it may be marginally colder. During La Nina months, the sea surface temperatures in the equatorial and eastern pacific are low. Snowfall is higher, WDs (western disturbances) are stronger. Though there is not a major correlation between La Nina and severe winters, we can say that winter will not be warm and temperatures are expected to be mostly below normal,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president, climate and meteorology, Skymet Weather. “It is also important to note that if there are too many weak WDs, northerly winds are not able to set in properly due to variable winds, leading to short periods of below normal temperature ,” he added.
To be sure, a La Nina doesn’t necessarily mean a colder winter.
“With La Nina we should expect a colder winter — but with global warming, that kind of cooling need not be expected. Nowadays global warming is offsetting the impact of El Nino and La Nina on temperatures. La Nina normally cools the planet. The frequency of WDs is higher and associated atmospheric circulation is also different,” said M Rajeevan, former secretary, ministry of earth sciences.
To be sure, naturally occurring climate events such as La Nina and El Nino are taking place in the broader context of human-induced climate change, which is increasing global temperatures, exacerbating extreme weather, and impacting seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns, World Meteorological Organisation has warned.
The monsoon season officially comes to an end on Tuesday. As of Monday, there is 8% excess rainfall over the country with 28% excess over northwest India; 14% excess over central India; 11% excess over the southern peninsula and 20% deficiency over east and northeast India.
Currently, night temperatures are above normal by 3-5 degrees Celsius over many parts of northwest India and likely to be above normal till October 4.
A fresh western disturbance is likely to affect western Himalayan region from October 4.
