Low pressure area over Arabian Sea may turn into cyclone Tauktae on Sunday
The low pressure area over Lakshadweep and adjoining southeast Arabian sea is now lying as a well marked low pressure area over the same region.
It is very likely to concentrate into a depression during the next 24 hours and intensify further into a cyclonic storm, Tauktae in the subsequent 24 hours.
It is then likely to intensify further and move north-northwestwards towards Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coasts and reach near Gujarat coast around May 18 evening.
“We cannot rule out intensification similar to Super Cyclone Amphan. At present, it is difficult to say which category of intensification the cyclone will reach. But conditions are extremely favourable for its rapid intensification. Ocean heat potential is above normal; sea surface temperatures are 1-2 degrees C above normal and Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is also favouring rapid intensification. We should be prepared,” Sunitha Devi, in-charge of cyclones at India Meteorological Department had said on Thursday.
Under its influence, heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely at a few places over Lakshadweep during May 13 to 16 with isolated extremely heavy rain on May 13 and 14; heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely at a few places over Kerala during May 13 to 16 with extremely heavy falls (more than 20 cm) at isolated places on May 14 to 15; heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places over Tamil Nadu is very likely on May 14 to 16, with extremely heavy falls at isolated places on May 15; heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places is likely over Coastal and adjoining ghat districts of Karnataka during May 14-17 with extremely heavy fall at isolated places on May 15.
A Western Disturbance as a trough (area of low pressure) is affecting the western Himalayan region and a cyclonic circulation is lying over central parts of south Uttar Pradesh and neighbourhood and another cyclonic circulation lying over central Pakistan. Under the influence of these systems, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated thunderstorm or lightning or gusty winds and hailstorm is very likely over western Himalayan region and scattered to fairly widespread rainfall with isolated thunderstorm or lightning or gusty winds is likely over plains of northwest India during the next 24 hours. Heavy rainfall is also likely over Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh during the next 24 hours.
Under the influence of an east-west trough from the cyclonic circulation over southeast Madhya Pradesh and neighbourhood to Assam across Jharkhand and Gangetic West Bengal, fairly widespread rainfall or thunderstorm activity is very likely to continue over northeastern states and West Bengal and Sikkim and isolated to scattered rain or thundershower is likely over rest parts of east India during the next two days. No heat wave is likely over any part of the country during the next 5 days.