A nascent revival of the southwest monsoon over Maharashtra will likely take it over Mumbai in the next 48 hours, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said, while clarifying that the rain received by India’s commercial capital on Monday were, in fact, pre-monsoon showers.
The revival of the monsoon, which had stalled last week, was accompanied by conditions favourable for further, albeit gradual, progress along the west coast and further inland towards central India, the IMD said. While parts of Maharashtra got light monsoon showers, the overall rainfall deficit in the country on Monday stood at 43%, IMD data showed.
“The monsoon has seen a slight revival, particularly on the western side. We had forecast the same a few days ago, that it should pick up again around June 22 and 23. However, a low pressure area over the Bay of Bengal is still missing and should only develop towards the end of the month,” said OP Sreejith, scientist and head of the climate monitoring and prediction group at IMD. “We can only expect gradual progress in the coming days till the end of the month, when it should finally pick up intensity,” he added.
Mahesh Palawat, vice-president at private forecaster Skymet said while the revival on the western side is good news, it only only be called a brief revival at this stage. He too said a low pressure area on the eastern side over the Bay of Bengal is still missing and is likely to form only by June 29. “This delays progress into UP and Delhi. We may expect that only towards the first week of July,” he added. Delhi usually sees the monsoon arrive around June 27.
{{/usCountry}}Mahesh Palawat, vice-president at private forecaster Skymet said while the revival on the western side is good news, it only only be called a brief revival at this stage. He too said a low pressure area on the eastern side over the Bay of Bengal is still missing and is likely to form only by June 29. “This delays progress into UP and Delhi. We may expect that only towards the first week of July,” he added. Delhi usually sees the monsoon arrive around June 27.
{{/usCountry}}In its bulletin IMD said the southwest monsoon had further advanced into some more parts of the “central Arabian Sea, Maharashtra, Telangana, remaining parts of Karnataka, some parts of Chhattisgarh, some more parts of Odisha, Jharkhand and Bihar on June 22.”
“Conditions are favourable for the southwest monsoon to further advance into remaining parts of central Arabian Sea, some more parts of Maharashtra – including Mumbai, remaining parts of Telangana and Odisha, some more parts of Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Bihar during the next 48 hours,” it added. .
On Monday, the northern extent of the monsoon was through Alibag, Pune, Nizamabad, Dantewada, Balangir, Sundargarh, Chatra, Gaya and Muzaffarpur.
IMD had earlier said the monsoon had entered parts of Maharashtra on June 8, four days after it reached Kerala. But most of the state saw little rain. Lack of localised weather systems over the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea and the impact of the prevailing El Nino conditions stymied further progress. Normally, the monsoon reaches Mumbai around June 11.
Till June 22, the country should have recorded 106mm rainfall as per the long period average (LPA), but it has so far received just 60.6mm. Central India is the worst impacted, with a deficit of 67%, followed by a deficit of 40% in east and northeast India. South peninsular India has a deficit of 28% and northwest India is down 15% from the LPA so far.
IMD has projected this year’s monsoon rainfall to be 90% of the long-period average with El Niño conditions expected to suppress rainfall, particularly in the second half of the season.