Monsoon revival unlikely before July 7, says IMD
Monsoon is unlikely to progress over the rest of northwest India till July 7, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Wednesday. Monsoon rain over the country will also remain extremely subdued till then.
The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) continues to pass through Barmer, Bhilwara, Dholpur, Aligarh, Meerut, Ambala and Amritsar. Since June 19, there is no progress of the NLM. Monsoon is yet to cover Delhi, Haryana, parts of Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Punjab
In a statement on Wednesday, IMD said the monsoon had weakened due to impact mid-latitude westerly winds that didn’t allow easterly winds to progress; unfavourable Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and absence of formation of low pressure system over North Bay of Bengal which helps monsoon progress and brings rain in its path.
The MJO currently lies in Phase 1 (equatorial eastern Africa) with amplitude more than 1. It is likely to propagate eastwards into Phase 2 (Western Equatorial Indian Ocean and adjoining Arabian Sea) with amplitude close to 1 by July 2 and further into Phase 3 (Eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean Bay of Bengal) from July 7. MJO is likely to gradually favour enhancement of convection and cross equatorial flow over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) during Week 2 after July 7. MJO location and amplitude strongly modulates the intensity of tropical convection and features like low pressure systems over the north Indian Ocean.
“Model forecasts show that easterly winds from Bay of Bengal in lower tropospheric levels are not likely to be established over north-western plains of India before July 7. Accordingly, further advance of southwest monsoon into remaining parts of Rajasthan, Delhi, Haryana and Punjab is not likely till July 7,” the statement said.
As on June 30, the country had recorded 10% excess rains with 14% excess over northwest India; 17% excess over central India; 4% excess over south Peninsula; 3% excess over east and northeast India.
IMD also warned that due to likely dry westerly or southwesterly winds from Pakistan to northwest India at lower levels, heat wave conditions are likely over some parts of Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Rajasthan, West Uttar Pradesh during next 2 days and over and West Madhya Pradesh during the next 24 hours.
Meanwhile, under the influence of strong moist southwesterly winds from Bay of Bengal to northeast and adjoining east India; fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy rainfall very likely over Bihar, West Bengal, Sikkim and northeastern states during next 6-7 days which can trigger flooding.
“As predicted, monsoon enters into the break phase with little rains over the country and no signs of revival till July 7. Heavy rains could trigger floods over N-E and states like Bihar. Due to dry weather, temps go up over NW India including Delhi with temps >40 C,” tweeted M Rajeevan, secretary, ministry of earth sciences.