No consensus on peaking emissions among G20 raises worries

The G20 communique, expected to be released on July 28 as a joint statement of the G20 environment and climate ministers and members, is likely to have at least 13 to 14 paragraphs on G20’s views on the climate crisis

One of the most contentious issues at the G20 environment and climate sustainability ministerial is the global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions before 2025. Along with that, the goal of keeping global warming under 1.5 degree C also remains fuzzy.

(HT Photo)

Increasing renewable energy goals, phasing down fossil fuels, and the Paris Agreement’s goal of keeping global warming under 1.5 degree C above pre-industrial levels are among the main issues deliberated in the recently concluded Goa ministerial meeting.

While the Goa meeting delivered a poor outcome following resistance by G20 members over renewable energy targets, according to the people aware of the development, the July 28 meeting in Chennai is expected to discuss important and contentious issues, including climate change mitigation, adaptation and means of implementation or climate finance.

The G20 communique, expected to be released on July 28 as a joint statement of the G20 environment and climate ministers and members, is likely to have at least 13 to 14 paragraphs on G20’s views on the climate crisis.

However, according to those attending the meeting, Saudi Arabia and a few others are strongly against having this agreement in the communique or joint statement expected to be released by the G20 nations on Friday.

“Most of the brackets are around the issue of peaking. Naturally, that clouds the entire mitigation issue,” said an official who is attending the meeting.

“What has already not been agreed on in the energy track cannot be agreed on here. 1.5 degree will be cushioned. There are disagreements on that. Everyone is holding their positions. We are trying to be as inclusive as possible. We are also trying other means like making them sign on blue economy principles which is also a climate issue with sea level rise,” added another official. Negotiations continued till early morning on Thursday and again resumed on Thursday afternoon.

All G20 environment and climate ministers are attending the meeting including the United States special envoy for climate John Kerry.

HT reported on July 23 that the G20 energy track in Goa failed to reach consensus on critical climate issues such as trebling of renewable energy deployment and phasing down of fossil fuels, a chair’s summary indicated, although India’s minister for renewable added talks were still “one of the most successful” for the bloc, and that it laid down important groundwork ahead of the COP28 climate talks later this year.

It was clear from the summary that some G20 members did not support the language on phasing down fossil fuels and trebling renewable energy deployment.

Concerned with the slow progress of the G20 on climate mitigation, Sultan Al-Jaber, COP28 president-designate and Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have issued a joint statement on the G20 to deliver a strong statement on climate mitigation.

“The G20 must affirm its commitment to achieving the operationalisation of the fund and funding arrangements for loss and damage. Those at the frontline of climate change need our support now, not in 5 years,” they said.

The G20 must show that it can deliver for the most climate vulnerable, including the least developed countries and small island developing states, COP 28 presidency and UNFCCC said.

The leaders also urged G20 nations to raise the importance of defining a Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) and operationalizing the loss and damage fund and funding arrangements “to an equal level.”

“G20 nations called on “to urgently prioritize revised commitments, whether NDCs, NAPs or on climate finance, including contributions to the ambitious replenishment of the GCF to align with the Paris Goals,” they said.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s Working Group III report, Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of climate change had said limiting warming to around 1.5 degree C requires global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to peak before 2025 at the latest, and be reduced by 43% by 2030, at the same time, methane would also need to be reduced by about a third.

“Even if we do this, it is almost inevitable that we will temporarily exceed this temperature threshold but could return to below it by the end of the century,” the report had said.

Climate Analytics, a global climate science and policy institute, had said a resolution on peaking requires global leadership by the big emitters, the G20 countries, accounting for about three-quarters of global greenhouse gas emissions. “All eyes will be on the outcome of their summit later this year. At the start of 2022, there was some hope that we had started on a downward trajectory, but unfortunately, emissions have rebounded since the COVID-19 pandemic to reach new records – largely from coal-fired power,” it had said in March.

Some countries are on a knife’s edge – they could be peaking their emissions – but decisions made in the here and now, especially those concerning fossil fuel expansion and climate finance from rich nations, are the axis on which our ability to limit warming to 1.5°C turns, the note had said.