PLA reluctant to restore April 2020 status at Gogra, post-US Kabul a new theatre

The Chinese army wants India to recognise its new positions along the Ladakh LAC beyond patrolling point 15 and 17A and is very reluctant to go back to its dug-outs before April 2020.

Updated on: Apr 16, 2021, 07:46:10 IST

By Shishir Gupta, Hindustan Times, New Delhi

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The 11th round of India-China military talks on disengagement and de-escalation from Gogra-Hot Springs area of East Ladakh did not yield the required result with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) reluctant to restore April 2020 status quo along the 1597-km Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the western sector.

India has made it amply clear that it will not allow China or any power to exercise veto over its foreign policy. (Reuters File Photo)

While the Indian Army in a statement after April 9 dialogue called for completion of disengagement at all friction points to set the stage for de-escalation, it is evident from the meeting that more rounds of dialogue would be required to achieve the desired objective. “The PLA stopped short of restoring April 2020 status quo ante at Gogra-Hot Springs area and have submitted certain proposals from their side for consideration of the Indian Army. The complete disengagement in this area will take time and more persuasion,” said a senior official.

Diplomatese aside, the PLA clearly wants that Indian Army recognise its new positions along the Ladakh LAC beyond patrolling point 15 and 17A and is very reluctant to go back to its dug-outs before April 2020. “There are some 60 Chinese troops ahead of its April 2020 positions in the Gogra-Hot Springs area and disengagement remains incomplete till status quo ante is restored. Once this step is completed, the next step would be to address the patrolling rights of Indian Army in Depsang Bulge, a 2013 legacy issue,” said another official.

Although External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar has defined India as an enlightened power with strategic domain way beyond Malacca Straits and Gulf of Aden, China is expected to continue in Middle-Kingdom mindset of 18th century now that US is withdrawing from Afghanistan by September 11, 2021.

India has made it amply clear that it will not allow China or any power to exercise veto over its foreign policy or get beaten by Cold War phraseologies for being a leading partner in QUAD security grouping and a very close ally of France. The Modi government is, however, aware that withdrawal of US from Afghanistan will mean that China will exercise influence in the Islamic Republic through its client state Pakistan and its proxy, the Taliban. The issue has got further complicated with Russia and Iran also being close partners of rising China resulting in weak opposition to so-called Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan on the ground. This will allow ultra-conservative Taliban to take over Afghanistan and also give much needed strategic depth to Pakistan and allow China to expand its Belt and Road Initiative all the way up to Iran via Kabul. In short, Islamic radicalisation will further increase in Afghanistan and China will expand its area of influence to West Asia and Africa.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Shishir Gupta
Shishir Gupta is Executive Editor at Hindustan Times and one of India's top journalists covering national security, strategic affairs, foreign policy and geopolitics. Over the past three decades, he has extensively reported on India's military, diplomatic and security landscape, covering every major conflict and national security challenge, from the 1999 Kargil War and the 2020 East Ladakh standoff to Operation Sindoor in 2025. He has also covered major terror attacks, including the IC-814 hijacking, the 26/11 Mumbai attacks and the 2025 Pahalgam terror strike, along with numerous Pakistan-backed terrorist incidents in the Kashmir Valley and across India. He has reported on national and state elections for more than three decades. A recognised authority on strategic affairs, Gupta has covered India's nuclear programme since the Pokhran-II (Shakti series) tests in May 1998 and has written extensively on global nuclear issues, Indian diplomacy and the country's expanding global outreach. He has also reported widely on international conflicts and terrorism, with a special focus on the Indian subcontinent. Gupta has interviewed Prime Minister Narendra Modi more than four times, including Modi's first interview with the print media after becoming Prime Minister in May 2014. His other interviews include three with the Dalai Lama, as well as conversations with Benjamin Netanyahu, Amit Shah, Yogi Adityanath, S. Jaishankar, Nirmala Sitharaman and Piyush Goyal. He is the author of Indian Mujahideen: The Enemy Within (Hachette, 2011) and Himalayan Face-off: Chinese Assertion and Indian Riposte (Hachette, 2014). He was awarded the Chevening-Wolfson Joint Scholarship at Wolfson College, University of Cambridge, UK, in 1998 and participated in the International Visitor Leadership Program (IVLP) of the US State Department in 2006. He received the Ben Gurion Prize from Israel in 2011 and the K. Subrahmanyam Prize for Strategic Studies in 2015 from the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA). Since 2024, he has hosted Point Blank, Hindustan Times' weekly YouTube show on global geopolitics.Read More

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