Remal likely to cross Bengal coast around Sunday midnight as severe cyclonic storm

Private forecaster Skymet Weather on Thursday said there is a fair amount of diversification about the track and timelines of Cyclone Remal

Cyclone Remal, which is expected to develop over the east-central Bay of Bengal, is likely to cross Bangladesh and adjoining West Bengal coasts between Sagar Island and Khepupara around Sunday midnight as a severe cyclonic storm with a wind speed of 100 to 120 km per hour, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday.

An IMD official said models were showing divergent projections on intensification and landfall point. (X)

The well-marked low-pressure area over the west-central and adjoining south Bay of Bengal moved northeastwards over 12 hours, concentrated into a depression, and was on Friday centered over the central Bay of Bengal, about 800 km south-southwest of Khepupara (Bangladesh) and 810 km south of Canning (West Bengal).

It is likely to continue to move northeastwards and intensify further into a cyclonic storm over the east-central Bay of Bengal by Saturday morning before moving nearly northwards, to intensify into a severe cyclonic storm by Saturday night.

The weather system will continue to move nearly northward and is expected to cross Bangladesh and adjoining West Bengal coasts between Sagar Island and Khepupara around Sunday midnight as a severe cyclonic storm.

An IMD official said the North Indian Ocean is extremely warm and that sea surface temperatures of 30 to 31°C have all the potential to supercharge this cyclone. “But monsoon winds have already set in over the Peninsular region and this system is still attached to that monsoon flow.”

The official said in a day or two, it will detach from that flow and travel towards the coast. “But its travel time, when it has the potential to intensify, is short, about 1.5 days. So we are hoping that it can intensify only up to a severe or a very severe cyclone with peak winds of around 135 to 140 km per hour.” The official said models are showing divergent projections on intensification and landfall point. “So we have to wait.”

Private forecaster Skymet Weather on Thursday said there is a fair amount of diversification about the track and timelines of the cyclone. “It is quite probable that the cyclone may head for the Myanmar-Bangladesh border, south of Cox’s Bazar. Yet, the possibility of the system coming dangerously close to the West Bengal–Odisha coast cannot be ruled out,” it said.