Shiv Sena crisis set to further dent Sinha’s vote tally in President election

The Shiv Sena has 19 MPs in the Lok Sabha, and three in the Rajya Sabha, making it the fourth-largest Opposition outfit after the Congress, the Trinamool Congress, and the DMK.

The Opposition-backed candidate in the presidential poll, Yashwant Sinha, is set to lose more votes after the rebellion in the Shiv Sena, as most Sena MPs appear set to support the National Democratic Alliance candidate Droupadi Murmu, according to leaders and party functionaries from both the Opposition and the Treasury benches.

Opposition's Presidential candidate Yashwant Sinha addresses a joint press conference in Lucknow on Thursday. (ANI)

Meanwhile, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), which has remained non-committal on the issue since Murmu’s name was announced by the NDA, is also likely to side with the tribal woman leader in the poll on July 18.

“After NDA announced Droupadi Murmu’s candidature, it would be difficult for the JMM, otherwise an integral part of the Opposition, to oppose a Scheduled Tribe woman,” a senior non-Congress opposition leader conceded.

The Shiv Sena has 19 MPs in the Lok Sabha, and three in the Rajya Sabha, making it the fourth-largest Opposition outfit after the Congress, the Trinamool Congress, and the DMK. But the division in the Sena that altered the party’s power equation in Maharashtra -- leading to the ouster of Uddhav Thackeray as chief minister and the rise to power of rebel Eknath Shinde -- will now play out in Parliament as MPs pick which side of the divide they’re on.

A BJP functionary said there are several voices within the Sena that believe the party should lend support to Murmu. “We have also heard that some Shiv Sena MPs have asked the former chief minister Uddhav Thackeray to consider voting for the NDA candidate. We are confident that the NDA candidate will win the decisive margin, and since the party whip does not apply in this election, many MLAs and MPs from the Sena will show their support for the NDA candidate,” the functionary said

The Shinde faction has 7,000 votes in the presidential election based on the 40 party MLAs in its camp. Technically, Thackeray still has 18,200 votes if all his remaining MLAs and the party’s 22 MPs are clubbed together. That’s not how things may play out though.

Earlier this week, Sena MP Rahul Shewale wrote a letter to Thackeray to consider supporting Murmu. Deepak Kesarkar, an MLA and spokesperson of the Shinde faction, also issued an appeal to opposition parties to vote for Murmu.

“Most of the Lok Sabha MPs from the Sena are set to support the chief minister Shinde, and we would be surprised if they vote for us, especially in an election where no party whip is applicable and votes are cast through secret ballots just like Lok Sabha polls,” a Maharashtra observer from the Opposition camp said.

The NDA, with the support of the BJD, YSRCP, SAD and AIADMK, is anyway set to comfortably win the election for India’s highest office. And a switch in the Sena votes, and the JMM’s possible support, will increase Murmu’s victory margin while further widening the divide in the Opposition ranks.

“Unlike a Rajya Sabha poll, where we can identify the defectors, it would be impossible to find out who voted for whom in the presidential and vice-presidential poll. Even if a party gives a direction, the MPs and MLAs can vote otherwise in their individual capacity,” an Opposition strategist said.

The electoral college for the presidential election comprises 543 Lok Sabha, 233 Rajya Sabha and 4,033 members of legislative assemblies. The total value of the parliamentarians’ votes is 543,200, and that of assembly members is 543,231, totalling 1,086,431.