E-Paper
Southern states logged highest Nov rains since 1901, says IMD
The states of Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala and south interior Karnataka gauged 169% excess rainfall last month, mainly due to the presence of five low pressure systems over Andaman Sea compared to 2.4 systems forming on an average during this period, the weather bureau said.
Prefer HTon Google
The south peninsular region, which receives the northeast monsoon during winter months, recorded its highest ever rainfall in November since 1901, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Wednesday.
The region is most likely to see above-normal rainfall in December, it added.
Also Read | Deep dive: Why does Chennai flood every time it rains heavily?
The states of Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala and south interior Karnataka gauged 169% excess rainfall last month, mainly due to the presence of five low pressure systems over Andaman Sea compared to 2.4 systems forming on an average during this period, the weather bureau said.
In 1901, only 50% of long period average (117.5 mm) was recorded.
The northeast monsoon was also in its active phase last month, it added.
As many as 100 people were killed across Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu in various rain-related events in the southern peninsula last month.
Also Read | Heavy rainfall continues in Chennai, over 20k in relief camps
“Sea surface temperature over the north equatorial Indian Ocean has been higher than normal in recent months. Easterly waves are also coming to the Indian Ocean region from the northwest Pacific. These are then forming into low pressure systems over the Indian Ocean. A warm Indian Ocean may be a result of intra-seasonal variability and may also be because of climate change,” DS Pai, who heads climate research and services at IMD, Pune, had said on Tuesday.
The weather body said the region is most likely to see above-normal rainfall (more than 132 per cent of the long period average) in December. The LPA of rainfall over south Peninsular India during December, based on the data of 1961-2010, is about 44.54 mm.
Also Read | These southern states to get above normal rainfall from Dec till Feb: IMD
Meanwhile, the country saw 645 events of heavy rainfall (64.5 to 115.5 mm) and 168 events of very heavy rainfall (115.6 to 204.5 mm) last month, the highest in the month in five years, the weather bureau said.
The country also recorded 11 extremely heavy rainfall events (more than 204.5 mm) in November, with most of them concentrated around the peninsula region, it added.
‘Normal’ winter likely over northwest India
The IMD has also issued a probabilistic forecast for minimum and maximum temperatures for winter months of December to February.
Models suggest that ‘normal’ to ‘above normal’ minimum temperatures are likely over many parts of northwest India, most parts of south and northeast India and some areas along the Himalayan foothills, it said. Minimum temperatures are likely to be below normal over some parts of the north interior peninsula, it added.
According to IMD director general M Mohapatra, there is a higher probability of normal temperatures during winter in Haryana, Punjab and Delhi.
“This doesn’t mean that there will be no cold waves or no cold periods. It only means that the minimum and maximum temperatures will be as expected during winter months over northwestern states,” he said.
Maximum temperatures are likely to be below normal over most parts of the country, except only some parts of northwest India and most parts of northeast India where normal to above normal temperatures are likely, IMD scientists said.
The rainfall forecast suggests that normal to above normal rainfall is likely over most parts of south peninsular India in December. It also suggests that below normal rainfall is most likely over most areas of northwest India and some parts of central and northeast India this month.
Currently, the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and the atmospheric conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean indicate weak La Niña conditions.
The latest forecasts from global models suggest that La Niña conditions are likely to strengthen and peak to moderate conditions during the upcoming winter season. In addition to El Nino- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions over the Pacific, other factors such as the Indian Ocean SSTs also influence the Indian climate. At present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean.
Andhra Pradesh and Odisha on cyclone watch
The IMD has issued a cyclone alert for north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coasts.
According to the weather body, a depression is likely to form over southeast and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal by Thursday and intensify into cyclonic storm Jawad over central parts of the Bay of Bengal during the subsequent 24 hours.
It is then likely to move northwestwards, intensify further and reach near north Andhra Pradesh – Odisha coasts around December 4 morning.
The maximum impact is likely to be felt in north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha but Gangetic West Bengal is also expected to record very heavy rain on December 5, IMD said.
In view of this, oil industries, off-shore and alongshore operations along north Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal coasts have been advised to be regulated on December 3 and to be suspended on December 4 to ensure safety of life and property, it added.
Standing crops in coastal districts, which include paddy and horticulture crops, are likely to be impacted.
Mohapatra advised farmers to keep paddy that has already been harvested, away from the rain and strong winds.
The IMD cautioned against flooding of roads, inundation and water logging in low lying areas, disruption of traffic in major cities due to water logging in roads leading to increased travel time, damage to vulnerable structures, landslides/mudslides and flooding of river catchments in both Andhra Pradesh and Odisha.
