Three recent studies have shed some light on Covid-19 third wave.
Three recent studies have shed some light on Covid-19 third wave.

Third wave of Covid-19 in India: What these 3 studies have predicted so far

Will the third wave of Covid-19 come hit India in October? Here is what the recent studies say.
By hindustantimes.com | Edited by Poulomi Ghosh
UPDATED ON JUN 18, 2021 09:03 PM IST

With Covid-19 cases steadily declining and states embracing unlocking, a possible third wave has entered in scientific and public discourse. If a third wave of the pandemic hits India, its impact will largely depend on vaccination coverage, which scientists have emphasised in their finding. Several studies have come in the last few days.

Here is a look at the recent projections of 3rd wave:

1. Third wave may hit in October

Reuters conducted an opinion survey of 40 healthcare specialists, doctors, scientists, virologists, epidemiologists and professors from around the world from which it gathered that the third wave may hit the country by October.

Major takeaways of this study

> The wave will be controlled better as many people will be vaccinated by then.

> The number of cases will be much less than what India witnessed in the 2nd wave.

2. Third wave may not affect children more than adults

A possible third wave may not affect children in any disproportionate way, the World Health Organization and the All India Institute of Medical Sciences have said. This finding has been based on a seroprevalence study done in five states on a sample size of 10,000. Covid-19 seroprevalence in the age group below 18 is 55.7 per cent and above 18 is 63.5 per cent.

Major takeaways of this study

> Children will not be disproportionately affected in the third wave, as it was projected, because they also have the same level of antibody.

> Overall, a large number of people have developed resistance against Covid-19.

3. Third wave may be more dangerous for Maharashtra

Maharashtra government's task force has some different projections regarding the possible third wave, as it projects a more dangerous peak in the state. And the reason is the Delta Plus variant. The number of active Covid-19 cases could go up to 8 lakh in this peak, the projection said.

Major takeaways of this study

> 10 per cent of the active cases are likely to be children.

> The timing can't be predicted as there is a gap of 100 to 120 days between two waves but some countries had a 14 to 15 weeks' gap.

What the government said

The issue of a possible third wave has been addressed by government experts who emphasised that the impact of it will depend on whether the virus and its variants are getting any scope to infect people. "There will be variants. But there is no new way to fight any new variant," Niti Aayog member (health) VK Paul said on Friday. The unlocking process should be measures, social distancing and other Covid appropriate behaviour should be followed, govt's experts have said adding that the timing of the possible third wave can't be predicted.

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