E-Paper
Exit polls & X-ray vision
VP Singh comments on democracy and elections in times of the thinking voter.
From a broader perspective, in a democracy, freedom of expression of one’s opinion and dissemination of information are very vital. One should think ten times before putting controls on them.
Opinion polls should not be completely out of control either. They shouldn’t be banned; perhaps the Election Commission (EC) could register those who want to do polls. Basically it’s related to the election process, so the EC should be in the picture. They can maintain a few norms: how many experts the pollsters have, what sample size should be taken, from what economic classes, how to take a cross-section and so on. You need not fudge the results, but if you change the cross-section of opinion you can get whatever results you want.
If you’re a party with a lot of backward support, you need to do a survey with a large backward sample, and you need not do any false reporting. If you want upper caste, just take a slice from there, and get what you want. Or better yet, take your survey through email, telephone, SMS. So the parameters of the survey sample should be set by the EC.
Then, there is the matter of motivation behind the survey. For that there ought to be certain norms of variation. Like if your results or assessment is haywire, then you should be debarred from polling the next time around. If the margin of error is within a certain percentage, then that’s fine. But if someone is kite-flying, then next time they can’t be allowed.
We don’t want to ban polls because if we take the example of the current elections, it was through a corporate-style propaganda that opinion was manipulated. A lot of money goes into it. Smaller parties aren’t able to do it. So for them, the only safeguard are exit polls. Some parties use corporate-style propaganda to do a total blitzkrieg called ‘India Shining’ and ‘Feel Good’. This hype based on advertisement and propaganda, founded on the stre-ngth of money, could only be punctured by the reality of the exit polls.
Look at it from the voter’s point of view. Earlier there were personal contacts, and political issues were dealt with in a matter-of-fact way. Now it is glamour: Bollywood is involved, TV, even personal SMSs from the PM himself. In this, how does the voter protect himself? He doesn’t have the means to verify what he hears. But if the polls are within reasonable limits then it is a help to the voter to know the ground reality.
Could polls have affected the 1989 elections? It was a special year, the media was with me. Every day polls supported me; even before counting my victory was declared by the media. As for other years, they had compressed elections. It’s in a prolonged process of election that damage gets done. The parties get time to build on it and take measures. This long gap between phases in any case should be compressed. It can’t be done in a single day due to security factors and other reasons, but there shouldn’t be such long gaps.
Some people talk of phasing elections so that constituencies favourable to the ruling party poll first, and the exit polls can influence other phases. The EC is an independent body and one can’t cast aspersions on it. But, maybe, there are certain ground rules needed — like creating blocs in the country that poll in different phases, or conducting state-wise phases of polling.
The current exit polls have affected the BJP. First they were feeling good, now they are feeling nervous, by the end they’ll be feeling glum. Their change of strategy in the middle of a war will be a big blunder. First they were trying to win over the Muslims. Now they’re so nervous they’re calling in Narendra Modi. They won’t have credibility with either Hindus or Muslims. Muslims who spoke on their behalf — what will be their position in their community? How will they ever go with the BJP again? First you talk about Pakistan, then about Himayat, and then about Hindu-Muslim amity. And when you see nothing is working, you go back to your Hindutva. Even the Hindu-minded will be sceptical at these efforts.
When they talk about stability, then we come to some issues. Their campaign is misconceived, and I believe they act wholly on the advice from the corporate sector. In their broader outlook, one thing is missing. When they talk of India Shining, they talk only of dhana (fina-nce), not of jana (people). And even the dhana is not exactly shining: debt is increasing; the amount paid interest is up; new jobs per year have fallen; not even one-fourth of the new labour force each year is getting jobs; in one year, $30 billion speculative foreign exchange has come to make profit in Indian financial markets; and you’re showing GDP growth against a preceding bad year.
The broader political point is that they’re not concerned with people issues, like education, health, khana-kapada-makaan. About 50 per cent of the population is under-nourished, and you’re saying everything is okay. This has alienated the people. Now, after the exit polls, they’re beginning to understand.
But this midway change of thrust in campaigning will harm them more. When you’re not stable in your party’s policy, how can you talk of stability? Even the Congress has provided stability — in fact, for a longer period. In West Bengal, the Left has given the maximum stability. The ruling party confuses the stability of a country with the stability of a government.
After the exit polls, the BJP has started to play games with the Samajwadi Party. These games are amateurish, and the voters are far more clever and they can see through them. They have X-ray vision.
The BJP flip-flopped on all issues: the Ram temple, Article 370 or Hindu-Muslim amity. Their vision document says they’ll abide by court judgement or amicable settlement — then what about their struggle for their causes? Advani says no one should have an objection to their stand on the temple; why didn’t he say this 15 years ago, instead of pulling down my government?
They haven’t raised people’s issues; instead they’ve centered their campaign around Sonia’s foreign origins. She’s a citizen, and there can’t be two types of citizenships — one that is trustworthy and one that isn’t. Citizenship is of the highest value in our land, the premiership is a derivative of that. It just shows the throes of desperation the exit polls have put the ruling party in.
(The writer is former Prime Minister of India)
