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?Formula 57? to win the polls

Jat votes play a key role in most of the 57 seats. Jats are no longer with the Congress as they used to be. Hence, the BJP would benefit, says BJP state president.

india Updated: Oct 16, 2003 19:55 IST

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has it all planned out, mathematically. ‘Formula 57’ is at the core of this calculus developed by Rajasthan BJP political secretary Chandra Raj Singhvi. He has sold it to party leaders and uses it to prove how the BJP is going to make a clean sweep in the forthcoming Assembly elections, wiping out Congress.

He has worked out his political mathematics both seat-wise and vote-wise. It is also a critique of earlier BJP strategy and leadership in Rajasthan.

“Since 1952, the BJP has never won in 57 Assembly constituencies. The contest has been only for the remaining 143. It is surprising no one in BJP paid any attention to this earlier,” says Singhvi.

He proceeds to launch himself into a detailed elaboration of his formula: The assessment of Congress tally starts with these 57 seats, leaving only about 50 seats to be won.

This time things are different. So if one says Congress would get, say, 110 seats, it includes these 57 seats. Jat votes play a key role in most of the 57 seats. Jats are no longer with the Congress as they used to be. Hence, the BJP would get at least 27 of these
seats. Now, 110 – 27 = 83. This is way short of a majority.

As for vote share, in 1998 elections, the Congress bagged 84 lakh votes and the BJP got 64 lakh. Of the Congress votes, Jats accounted for 15 lakh votes, Scheduled Castes and Tribes 20 lakh, government employees angry with BJP rule contributed seven lakh and 42 lakh were
others.

Of these, Congress would lose about nine lakh Jat votes, seven lakh votes of employees, five lakh due to anti-incumbency, five lakh of Scheduled Caste votes and five lakh women votes due to their attraction for Vasundhara Raje. This adds up to 31 lakh votes which would shift to BJP. This leaves Congress with 53 lakh votes.

The BJP, which would lose about three lakh votes due to Social Justice Front and reservation issue, would still get 61 lakh plus 31 lakh, or 92 lakh votes.

Therefore, BJP has won.

First Published: Oct 16, 2003 19:55 IST