E-Paper
It’s not all poppycock
Reports that Afghanistan has $3 trillion worth of mineral wealth have caused a minor ripple in the resources world — but not much more than that.
If mineral wealth in Afghanistan can help change its current status, let’s chip in.
Reports that Afghanistan has $3 trillion worth of mineral wealth have caused a minor ripple in the resources world — but not much more than that. Indian companies are among the world’s many corporations that have expressed a guarded interest in the findings of a Pentagon report on Afghanistan’s buried treasures. However, no one should expect an Afghan resources boom anytime soon. This mineral wealth is not a surprise. Much of the geological data cited comes from surveys done by Soviet occupiers in the 1970s. Few firms are prepared to sink billions of dollars in decades-long mining investments when it is unclear who will be ruling Kabul even a year from now. And that doesn’t even factor in the security risks involved.
What the mineral deposits do signal — and presumably this is what inspired the Pentagon to commission the report in the first place — is that this landlocked country has the potential to become a normal State if it can only get past its present era of violence. There has been a school of thought that has portrayed Afghanistan as incapable of independent nationhood because of its semi-tribalised population and its lack of sources of economic wealth other than opium cultivation.
This has buttressed the case for a rapid rollback of the United States military presence in Afghanistan. This country can’t stand on its own, goes the argument, and the US can’t support it forever. Therefore, it’s better for the US to cut its losses and get out. The mineral survey helps tip the balance in favour of the counter-school. Namely, that Afghanistan has the economic wherewithal to be something other than a terrorist haven and a militant recruiting ground. But it needs to be given a chance.
India should not be overly concerned as to who partakes of Afghanistan’s mineral wealth or how. As long as a portion of the earnings from their extraction accrues to Afghanistan, India’s desire for a stable and independent Afghan nation comes closer to reality. Pakistani and Chinese territory stands between India and Afghanistan. There should be no illusions that India will ever directly benefit from this mineral wealth.
Only a few items, like gold, are profitable enough to be carried by air. This does not mean Indian mineral companies should not consider investing in Afghanistan for purely commercial rather than strategic reasons. At this point, all this is moot. The real game for India is to push for a continued US presence in Afghanistan. Doubts over this are already leading Afghan President Hamid Karzai to ask Pakistan to help him broker a political settlement with segments of the Taliban. Afghanistan is now at a major fork in its future in which every little bit, mining surveys included, is helping decide which direction it will take.
