Pre-poll crystal ball gazing through villagers' eyes

The contest in Patiala has turned out to be a prestigious fight in Punjab where the fortunes of `First lady' and Shiromani Akali Dal's Kanwaljit Singh will be decided in the May 10 election.

The contest in Patiala has turned out to be a prestigious fight in Punjab where the fortunes of `First lady' and Chief Minister Amarinder Singh's Perneet Kaur and Shiromani Akali Dal's Kanwaljit Singh will be decided in the May 10 election.

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While Kaur, a Congress candidate, makes a bid to retain the seat, Singh, a former Finance Minister in the previous Akali government, projects it as a larger fight with Chief Minister Amarinder Singh.

"I will not be exaggerating if I say the election result here can decide the course Punjab politics will take for the next three years, upto the next assembly polls", says a local village leader Jagjit Singh.

If "Rani" (Perneet) wins, at least Amarinder will have something to fall back upon, but if she fails, it is the beginning of the end of "Raja's" (Amarinder) government, he avers.

It is literally turning out to be a clash of heavyweights with both Singh and Kaur being weighed in coins or sweets by their respective supporters.

Such incidents do not escape the watchful eyes of the electorate as a retired government servant, Om Prakash Chopra remarked, "why single out the Lucknow saree stampede case? even such weighing and distributing equivalent quantities in kind is an electoral malpractice".

As scores converge at the 'dera' (monastery) of well-known saint Baba Shrawan Das Maharaj, more often than not the confabulations veer around politics and SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunity, Threats) analysis of various candidates.

One of the devotees, Rabb Singh said "this time it is not going to be easy for the 'Rani'. BSP has also fielded a candidate who can eat into the Dalit votes of the Congress".

BSP has fielded Hargopal Singh Kashyap, who, people feel may not win but will definitely gain support from Dalit localities, particularly, the reserved Shutrana assembly segment which has a large Dalit population.

Even many Akali supporters have good things to say about Perneet Kaur but most are disenchanted with Amarinder's style of functioning.

"Rani has been able to establish a personal rapport with the populace, particularly in Patiala town segment, but Amarinder, ensconced in Chandigarh, is surrounded by clique of corrupt officicals", alleges Chopra.

He predicts Kaur will be ahead in the Town area but Kanwaljit Singh has an edge in the rural hinterland where the Akalis have their traditional support base.

The general refrain is that if Kaur romps home it will be due to her own standing and not Amarinder's who has been harping on his anti-corrpution drive.

Amarinder's claims of clamping down on corruption are met with a pinch of salt as villagers allege that the arrest of a few senior officials in the previous Akali regime does not in any way remove the menace.

"Even my own land registration papers did not come for free, frankly, I do not see an end to corruption", Ranjit Bhatia, a local resident remarked.

With animosity between Amarinder and former Chief Minister Rajinder Kaur Bhattal well known among the populace, it does not help matters for Perneet.

Bhattal is herself a sitting MLA from Lehra, a part of the Patiala Lok Sabha constituency.

"Bhattal's supporters might not vote at all and if they do, they could in a strategic move opt for the BSP candidate," points out Rabb Singh with a twinkle in his eye.

But if one tries to talk about pushing the case of Bhattal as an alternative to Amarinder, villagers are not impressed.

"They are two sides of the same coin, with only one agenda, that is, their self-promotion", says another local, Parmeshwar Dass.

Knowledge about national politics in this interior Punjab village could be surprising for many but talk about subjects like Vajpayee's recent meeting with Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf is commonplace.

Interestingly, many say the thaw in Indo-Pak relations will play a role at the hustings which are not merely about constructing roads and power stations.

"Resumption of Lahore-Delhi bus service which passes through the heart of Punjab cannot be overlooked, it has impressed many of us", Jagjit Singh said adding it "symbolises Vajpayee's statesmanship".

Akalis are upbeat over the fact that Prem Singh Chandumajra, twice MP from here (1996 and 1998) and acolyte of late Gurcharan Singh Tohra, is not contesting this time thus making things easy for Kanwaljit Singh.

Kanwaljit Singh is venerated in rural belt along Banur-Rajpura region, and many there blindly vote for him, said a staunch Akali supporter adding they will be keen to see him enter Lok Sabha this time around.

Opinions vary on how big a factor will be the recent passing away of Tohra, who for decades was the President of the Shiromani Gurdwara Prabandhak Committee, and in fact was elected to the Lok Sabha from Patiala in 1977.