The New Iraqi Govt

One feels extremely hesitant in welcoming installation of Ibrahim Jafaari's govt as a major milestone in Iraq's unfolding destiny, writes Binay Kumar.

Given the turmoil that Iraq fasces on a daily basis as a direct of consequence of renewed insurgency on the eve of a new government taking oath yesterday, one feels extremely hesitant in welcoming the installation of Ibrahim Jafaari's government as a major milestone in Iraq's unfolding destiny.

Yet, the hammering together of an agreement between the various factions that constitute the new government must be hailed as a reprieve for the democratic aspirations of the Iraqi people as it comes together in the face of gathering pessimism if the exercise was at all going to reach its logical conclusion. That it did despite years of internecine ethnic and tribal rivalries is testimony to the steadfast belief they all share in burying the past and building a new future for Iraq.

That shouldn't however take away from the grim realities the new government must confront to become successful. The swearing-in of the first elected government should have been a remarkable event, except for the continued absence of Sunni support, and the fear that this government might not survive for long.

The United Iraqi Alliance (UIA), which has won a majority of the seats in the parliament, faced enormous difficulties in cobbling together a cabinet. This difficulty was directly related to the sectarian basis of electoral politics so heavily emphasized in the provisional constitution fashioned under the overbearing influence of the provisional authority that derived its legitimacy from the Anglo-American coalition.

The result was the emergence of the UIA (140 seats) as the single largest political entity, with Kurds (75 seats) and the Iyad Allawi group (40 seats) as two other competing partners. On the downside, Iraqi Sunnis ended up having fewer than 20 seats in the 275-member National Assembly, even though their share of the national population is over 20%.

Two years of war has dramatically changed Iraq's political landscape. Nevertheless, two years is not long enough for the slighted minority community to forget that they were the former rulers of Iraq. It was well in time that the Sunnis realized that the only way to restore their say in the new political make-up of Iraq was to become part of its unfolding script. Sunnis therefore decided to participate in a government formed by elections they had largely boycotted.

If the Sunni's are thinking strategically as it is reported in several quarters of analysis, they see the US forces as their eventual allies, because the people who would control the Shiite's in a civil war would be the religious leadership that is affiliated with Iran. If such a scenario were to hold true in the future, the Sunnis would emerge as representing the 'good guys' in the war on fundamentalist Islam and would eventually be returned to power.

Given such a composition, it took months of tortuous negotiations to arrive at an understanding. Even then a final decision eluded the negotiating parties on at least seven portfolios in the 37-member Cabinet - including the key oil and defense ministries. Many analysts feel that that even more crucial is the fact that this partial Cabinet fails to give the country's disaffected Sunni Arab minority, believed to be driving the insurgency, a meaningful governing stake.

The Cabinet which finally took office yesterday includes 16 Shiite Arabs, nine Kurds, four Sunnis and one Christian. It was announced later that two deputy prime minister's positions - including one that Prime Minister Jaafari hopes to offer to a woman - would remain unfilled for now and that five ministerial portfolios are actually under temporary charge.

As if installing an acceptable government in Iraq wasn't difficult enough, the insurgents are extremely busy causing as much violence, destruction and mayhem as possible. It was widely hoped that bringing the former ruling class into Iraq's emerging power structure could help quell the insurgency. That hope remains belied.

Despite some Sunnis joining the government, insurgents have made it abundantly clear there will be no letup in the violence as they carried on with greater zeal in unleashing a torrent of murderous attacks that have killed nearly 150 people since the National Assembly approved the partial Cabinet on Thursday. Violence continued today, including scattered bombings as well as a gun battle in Ramadi that the U.S. military said killed 12 suspected militants.

Considering the mindless wrangling and sectarian power-grabbing that is continuing, one wonders whether those jockeying for power realise that they may well be playing into the hands of those who wish Iraq nothing but death and destruction.

Howsoever imperfect this exercise in government formation may have been in Iraq, if this government falters, the greatest winners of this potential disaster looming large over this unfortunate land will be the insurgents. We cannot but wish the new experiment a grand success.