E ward doubling rate is 42 days; BMC says because of testing

For the first time since March, the doubling rate of Covid-19 infection in a ward – E (Mumbai Central, Byculla, Kamathipura) – has increased to 42 days, according

For the first time since March, the doubling rate of Covid-19 infection in a ward – E (Mumbai Central, Byculla, Kamathipura) – has increased to 42 days, according to the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation’s (BMC) data till Wednesday. The E ward has seen 2,775 cases till Thursday.

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The doubling time or rate is the number of days taken for the cases to double. The overall doubling time in the city is 20 days, higher than the country’s 16 days. The city’s average doubling rate was 11 days till May 24.

While the data on number of cases in all wards is available till Thursday, the doubling rate numbers are as of Wednesday. Following the E ward is F-N ward (Dadar, Sion Koliwada) with 2,805 cases, where the doubling rate is 32 days. The G-S ward, which covers Mahalaxmi and Lower Parel, has 2,287 cases and the doubling rate is 30 days. The H-E ward that covers Santacruz has a doubling rate of 29 days, with 2,535 cases. The doubling rate of G-N ward, which recorded the highest number of Covid-19 cases in Mumbai and includes India’s largest slum Dharavi, has increased to 27 days. The number of cases is 3,316.

Kiran Dighavkar, assistant municipal commissioner in-charge of G-S ward, said, “The change is because we have conducted aggressive testing of around 6,000 people, which helped us identify 1,541 positive cases. We managed to screen around 4.5 lakh people in all slum pockets. We have also placed more than 6,300 people under institutional quarantine. Private physicians joining hands with BMC in screening helped in early diagnosis.”

Experts are not sure of the reasoning. According to the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), testing is allowed only for people with symptoms, those with travel history, or contacts of infected people. However, as 80% of patients are asymptomatic, there is a possibility that a large number of patients are going undetected, which can decrease the doubling rate. “As we aren’t doing adequate number of tests, the doubling rate will increase. This data doesn’t provide a three-dimensional view of the situation in the city. It is just an eyewash while many patients are unidentified in the crowd,” Dr K Srinath Reddy, president of the Public Health Foundation of India.