Trends and factors that could impact elections in Maharashtra

The fight in Maharashtra is a mostly straight one, between the ruling BJP-Shiv Sena combine and the Congress-NCP-led front of opposition parties

By now, two phases of the Lok Sabha elections are over and 14 constituencies in Maharashtra will go to the polls on Tuesday in the third phase. These three phases are together covering 31 out of 48 constituencies. The last phase will have the highest — 17 seats — including six in Mumbai. The fight in Maharashtra is a mostly straight one, between the ruling BJP-Shiv Sena combine and the Congress-NCP-led front of opposition parties. With voting already over in 17 constituencies, there are certain trends and factors are visible which would impact the outcome of the polls.

Not one-sided and no wave

Unlike the 2014 elections, there is no visible wave this time although Prime Minister Narendra Modi is still popular among several sections of voters. The Congress-NCP led coalition of opposition parties seemed to be in disarray a few weeks ago, but as the candidates were finalised, they managed to put their act together. A tough contest is expected in more than 30 constituencies. That includes traditional strongholds of different parties. Even the social media war is not one-sided like the previous Lok Sabha elections. The Opposition parties are catching up with the BJP on that front.

Lower percentage of voting

The voting percentage is likely to be lower than in 2014. Lack of enthusiasm compared to last elections and severe heat in parts of the state is the reason. It is not clear whether the reduced percentage will affect the BJP combine or the Opposition. As such, ground-level election management has assumed significance. It is turning out to be challenge for the parties to ensure that there voters come out to vote. Those who get their assured voters to vote will be in a better position.

Urban-rural divide likely

There seems to be rural versus urban divide in this election. The urban areas of the state seem to be more favourable to the BJP-Sena, while the Congress-NCP are confident of getting more support in rural areas. The farm distress and drought are seen as the reasons behind the resentment in the rural areas. Experts and activists are pointing out that factors such as demonetisation, fall in prices of agricultural produce and deficient rainfall in parts of the state has led to rural distress. The ruling parties are hoping that state government’s farm loan waiver and Centre’s direct cash subsidy for farmers would have positive impact on rural areas. On the other hand, cities have not felt the pinch. That is also the reason why Modi factor seems to be getting more response in cities. The BJP has also tried to keep prices of fuel and essential commodities in check, which otherwise would have irked the urban voter.

Pawar vs BJP

The election in Maharashtra is also a proxy war between Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis and NCP chief Sharad Pawar. While Fadnavis is leading the ruling combine, Pawar is in the driver’s seat in the Opposition coalition. Fadnavis took initiative in forging an alliance with Shiv Sena. He personally picked candidates to put up a tough fight in traditional Congress-NCP strongholds and roped in influential leaders from the Opposition camp to boost chances of BJP candidates. Pawar took the lead to bring Opposition parties together. He is the only leader from the Opposition camp who has campaigned extensively across the state. Besides, the NCP seems more organised in taking on the BJP in the state, while Congress is stuck withwarring leaders. In this election, Fadnavis is aiming to cut Pawar to size, while the latter seems determined to turn the tables on him.

Raj Thackeray and Prakash Ambedkar

Two persons outside the two coalitions could influence voting. First is Prakash Ambedkar, who has formed VBA with Asaduddin Owaisi, and fielded candidates across the state. The VBA may walk away with a chunk of backward class and minority votes and affect prospects of Congress-NCP candidates in several constituencies. It may also create headache for the BJP-Sena in couple of constituencies. Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) chief Raj Thackeray’s rallies are drawing crowds and his speeches have also gone viral. In his rallies complete with video presentation on giant screen, Thackeray has been targeting PM Modi and BJP. The BJP-Sena is wary of its impact on their Marathi votes.