Chandrayaan lessons to solve stubble burning
An air pollution-free Delhi is possible. The first step is to streamline paddy cultivation. Science, administrative will, and startups can make it happen.
On September 6, 2019, a few kilometres from the moon’s surface, Chandrayaan-2’s lander lost contact with the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) and later crashed. But Chandrayaan-2 sent back data that provided valuable clues on why it failed – among other factors, the lander’s software could not handle the forces or manoeuvring needed to land safely, which the narrow confines of the landing site made worse. ISRO used these findings to plan Chandrayaan-3’s mission. It made the landing site wider, gave the craft’s software more flexibility, and loaded more fuel on the lander to give it more leeway to land. And so, Chandrayaan-3 touched down in style earlier this year. As the thick skies of Delhi tell us that there are wars on Earth yet to be won, Chandrayaan offers hope. While failure is part of the game, with data to show why something failed, followed by persistence and flexibility in solving the problem, we can win the game.
What does the data tell us about Delhi’s pollution problem?
Looking at the global fire map, we see fires burning in the Amazon, across Africa and North Australia; but nowhere else are they burning as brightly as in northwest India. Climate and timing compound Delhi’s misfortune. With little in their path to block them, winds carry smoke from Punjabi fields to Delhi lungs. Fire incidence typically peaks when there is little or no rain to wash the soot down, and the colder climate concentrates soot particles into a smaller atmospheric mixing volume. Many say the fires have reduced. Have they? Yes, somewhat.
Over the last decade, satellite-detected fire warnings shared by NASA reveal that October fire alerts have decreased steadily, and November fire alerts, after peaking in 2021, fell in 2022 and 2023. This trend is confirmed by the Punjab Crop Residue Burning and Management Information System, which shows the number of fires fell from 71,304 in 2021 to 49,922 in 2022, and further to 23,620 (until November 9, 2023). Haryana appears to have done even better.
But even as the fires have fallen, Delhi remains a gas chamber. While we wait for artificial rain (and thank the natural rain), in the spirit of Chandrayaan, what does our experience teach us? Delhi’s air is polluted by all burning – burning vehicular fuel, solid waste, stubble leftover from paddy harvests, and coal in power plants. Now, each burnt item carries a distinct chemical fingerprint that provides a clue about its origins. Governments have promised to analyse these on an ongoing basis and share the results. Sadly, this data stopped being shared publicly earlier in the year. This is akin to concealing analysis from Chandrayaan-2.
But this week, the Supreme Court weighed in on stubble burning, saying, “We want this to be stopped. We don’t care how you do it. This needs to be stopped now.” Then, data became available, showing that in November thus far, biomass burning played the biggest role in Delhi’s PM2.5 pollution, making up at least a quarter of the PM2.5 levels. Vehicular pollution and pollution from nearby industrial hubs such as Jhajjar and Sonipat were other major culprits. Biomass burning’s continuing large role in pollution, despite the fall in fires, proves the truth of a Tamil adage: Once the water has gone above your head, whether it is by a foot or a span, how does it matter?
This year, Punjab and Haryana together have seen over 20,000 instances of stubble burning thus far. Worryingly, Punjab’s paddy harvest is far from done. We can stop farm fires by managing the stubble or eliminating it. In managing stubble, three solutions show promise. Can they scale further? First, the decomposer, a spray applied on stubble to make it decompose quickly, has not scaled, because, per ground reports, it takes far too long. Second, leaving the stubble as is and using the Super Seeder or the Happy Seeder to sow the next crop has shown more promise.
To scale this further, machines need to be available more readily and more importantly, farmers who are less tech-savvy need to be trained to use the Seeders correctly. Moving the subsidy model from an upfront subsidy (subsidy can be pocketed and machines left to rust) to a per-use basis (paid only when the machine is used) can help. The third and the most excitement-evoking solution is baling and selling the stubble. Stubble is currently an economically competitive substitute for coal — indeed, in blocks where a large company with a captive boiler or power plant operates, firing appears to have been eliminated substantially.
To scale further, ground reports say, balers must be made more widely available, and the economics of collecting, transporting and making other products from stubble like plywood, cutlery and biogas must improve. This will take a little money and a lot of experimentation: Something startups are great at — unleash them. More important is incentivising farmers to adopt the solutions, both by providing a cash incentive when stubble is not burned coupled with a fine/penalty when stubble is, as Haryana’s experience has shown.
What about eliminating the stubble by not growing rice? Growing rice and wheat in Punjab and Haryana is a well-oiled machine, where every cog from the state governments to brokers and farmers benefits at the cost of groundwater and North Indian winter skies. There are literally trillions of rupees at stake. As long as that money machine keeps chugging, these states will churn out grain. Offering MSP for alternative crops without dismantling some of this machinery is unlikely to work, and tinkering with this money-spinning machine in an election year? Perish the thought.
Let me end with an unhelpful way to curb pollution. Children from economically disadvantaged homes do not have fancy air purifiers to protect their tender lungs. Declaring school holidays for them is akin to “let them eat cake”. Perhaps it is more effective, certainly more just, to ban air purifiers. While I jest, this action, if nothing else, would certainly increase the urgency to solve the problem.
Mridula Ramesh is an award-winning author and Climatetech Investor. The views expressed are personal
On September 6, 2019, a few kilometres from the moon’s surface, Chandrayaan-2’s lander lost contact with the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) and later crashed. But Chandrayaan-2 sent back data that provided valuable clues on why it failed – among other factors, the lander’s software could not handle the forces or manoeuvring needed to land safely, which the narrow confines of the landing site made worse. ISRO used these findings to plan Chandrayaan-3’s mission. It made the landing site wider, gave the craft’s software more flexibility, and loaded more fuel on the lander to give it more leeway to land. And so, Chandrayaan-3 touched down in style earlier this year. As the thick skies of Delhi tell us that there are wars on Earth yet to be won, Chandrayaan offers hope. While failure is part of the game, with data to show why something failed, followed by persistence and flexibility in solving the problem, we can win the game.
What does the data tell us about Delhi’s pollution problem?
Looking at the global fire map, we see fires burning in the Amazon, across Africa and North Australia; but nowhere else are they burning as brightly as in northwest India. Climate and timing compound Delhi’s misfortune. With little in their path to block them, winds carry smoke from Punjabi fields to Delhi lungs. Fire incidence typically peaks when there is little or no rain to wash the soot down, and the colder climate concentrates soot particles into a smaller atmospheric mixing volume. Many say the fires have reduced. Have they? Yes, somewhat.
Over the last decade, satellite-detected fire warnings shared by NASA reveal that October fire alerts have decreased steadily, and November fire alerts, after peaking in 2021, fell in 2022 and 2023. This trend is confirmed by the Punjab Crop Residue Burning and Management Information System, which shows the number of fires fell from 71,304 in 2021 to 49,922 in 2022, and further to 23,620 (until November 9, 2023). Haryana appears to have done even better.
But even as the fires have fallen, Delhi remains a gas chamber. While we wait for artificial rain (and thank the natural rain), in the spirit of Chandrayaan, what does our experience teach us? Delhi’s air is polluted by all burning – burning vehicular fuel, solid waste, stubble leftover from paddy harvests, and coal in power plants. Now, each burnt item carries a distinct chemical fingerprint that provides a clue about its origins. Governments have promised to analyse these on an ongoing basis and share the results. Sadly, this data stopped being shared publicly earlier in the year. This is akin to concealing analysis from Chandrayaan-2.
But this week, the Supreme Court weighed in on stubble burning, saying, “We want this to be stopped. We don’t care how you do it. This needs to be stopped now.” Then, data became available, showing that in November thus far, biomass burning played the biggest role in Delhi’s PM2.5 pollution, making up at least a quarter of the PM2.5 levels. Vehicular pollution and pollution from nearby industrial hubs such as Jhajjar and Sonipat were other major culprits. Biomass burning’s continuing large role in pollution, despite the fall in fires, proves the truth of a Tamil adage: Once the water has gone above your head, whether it is by a foot or a span, how does it matter?
This year, Punjab and Haryana together have seen over 20,000 instances of stubble burning thus far. Worryingly, Punjab’s paddy harvest is far from done. We can stop farm fires by managing the stubble or eliminating it. In managing stubble, three solutions show promise. Can they scale further? First, the decomposer, a spray applied on stubble to make it decompose quickly, has not scaled, because, per ground reports, it takes far too long. Second, leaving the stubble as is and using the Super Seeder or the Happy Seeder to sow the next crop has shown more promise.
To scale this further, machines need to be available more readily and more importantly, farmers who are less tech-savvy need to be trained to use the Seeders correctly. Moving the subsidy model from an upfront subsidy (subsidy can be pocketed and machines left to rust) to a per-use basis (paid only when the machine is used) can help. The third and the most excitement-evoking solution is baling and selling the stubble. Stubble is currently an economically competitive substitute for coal — indeed, in blocks where a large company with a captive boiler or power plant operates, firing appears to have been eliminated substantially.
To scale further, ground reports say, balers must be made more widely available, and the economics of collecting, transporting and making other products from stubble like plywood, cutlery and biogas must improve. This will take a little money and a lot of experimentation: Something startups are great at — unleash them. More important is incentivising farmers to adopt the solutions, both by providing a cash incentive when stubble is not burned coupled with a fine/penalty when stubble is, as Haryana’s experience has shown.
What about eliminating the stubble by not growing rice? Growing rice and wheat in Punjab and Haryana is a well-oiled machine, where every cog from the state governments to brokers and farmers benefits at the cost of groundwater and North Indian winter skies. There are literally trillions of rupees at stake. As long as that money machine keeps chugging, these states will churn out grain. Offering MSP for alternative crops without dismantling some of this machinery is unlikely to work, and tinkering with this money-spinning machine in an election year? Perish the thought.
Let me end with an unhelpful way to curb pollution. Children from economically disadvantaged homes do not have fancy air purifiers to protect their tender lungs. Declaring school holidays for them is akin to “let them eat cake”. Perhaps it is more effective, certainly more just, to ban air purifiers. While I jest, this action, if nothing else, would certainly increase the urgency to solve the problem.
Mridula Ramesh is an award-winning author and Climatetech Investor. The views expressed are personal