Missing wood for trees in the population debate
India’s diverse demographic landscape demands policies and programmes that are tailored to the unique needs of its states.
Recent statements by public figures encouraging Indian families, particularly women, to have three children once again overlook the real success of India’s population policies and have reignited misguided debates on women’s autonomy. The fear that a society with a total fertility rate (TFR) — the average number of children a woman has over her lifetime — below 2.1 could “disappear from the face of the earth” is totally unfounded. The statement sparked fresh panic, as many who were lamenting a “population explosion” until a week ago now began handwringing about a “population collapse”. However, these calls to increase family size are not just misguided, they are fundamentally flawed. They undermine women’s autonomy and overlook the nuanced measures India needs to address its demographic challenges.
India’s population dynamics demand thoughtful consideration, not alarm. In 2023, the country surpassed China as the world’s most populous nation. Its TFR, a crucial demographic indicator, has declined significantly from 3.4 in 1992–93 to 2.0 in 2019–21, dipping below the replacement level of 2.1. This trend, akin to patterns observed in developed nations, signifies societal progress facilitated by broader access to education, health care, and family planning services. According to United Nations projections, India’s population is expected to peak at 1.7 billion in the 2060s and gradually decline to 1.5 billion by 2100. This demographic dividend — its large and youthful population — offers an incredible opportunity to reshape the nation’s future. With over 365 million young people aged 10 to 24, India is set to have one of the biggest workforces in the world in the next three decades. But this potential can be unlocked only if we invest in quality education, child nutrition, accessible health care, skill development, and meaningful jobs.
In the long run, India must also prepare for a steadily ageing population over the next few decades. By 2050, the proportion of Indians over the age of 60 is projected to double, rising from the current 10% to 20%. This demographic shift will mirror trends seen in countries like Japan, Italy, and Germany, where ageing populations have strained health care systems, increased dependency ratios, and created labour shortages. We would need better social security and health systems to be able to provide a dignified and healthy life for the elderly. Promoting active ageing and enhancing workforce participation among older adults can further mitigate the economic effects of an ageing population.
This time, population experts must be relieved that those who advocate for Indian families to have three children did not invoke the long-running narrative that the Hindu population is under threat from growing numbers of Muslims. This shift signals an acknowledgement of what demographic data has consistently shown — that all religious groups in India have seen a steady decline in growth rates over the decades, with Muslims experiencing a faster drop than Hindus. Between 2001 and 2011, the growth rate for Muslims fell by 4.7 percentage points compared to 3.1 for Hindus. TFR among Muslims also dropped significantly, from 4.4 in 1992–93 to 2.4 in 2019–21. While Muslim TFR is marginally higher than that of Hindus, these are converging fast. At the same time, however, TFR among Muslim women in Kerala and Tamil Nadu is lower than that of Hindu women in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. As past analyses have demonstrated, the Muslim population poses no threat of ever overtaking the Hindu population, reaffirming that demographic anxieties rooted in religion are unfounded.
Such remarks have come at the heels of Andhra Pradesh chief minister (CM) N Chandrababu Naidu and Tamil Nadu CM MK Stalin asking women in their respective states to have more children. Stalin linked his concern to the upcoming delimitation exercise, which would redraw parliamentary boundaries based on population. His apprehension stems from the possibility that southern states, having successfully stabilised their populations through investments in health, education and employment, could see their political influence diminish, relative to northern states with higher population growth. This has understandably raised concerns about equitable representation.
Addressing this issue through directives to women would be both regressive and futile. Instead, the delimitation issue calls for a thoughtful discussion to ensure balanced representation, followed by a fair solution, which recognises and rewards the progress southern states have achieved through holistic development, rather than penalising them for it. Their concerns over fair political representation and just allocation of revenues need to be adequately addressed.
India’s demographic trends already demonstrate the efficacy of voluntary, development-driven strategies. This approach aligns with global evidence, where progressive policies have shown that empowering individuals through supportive social structures is far more effective than coercion in managing demographic trends. Countries like Sweden and Denmark have demonstrated the power of women-friendly policies — affordable childcare, parental leave for both men and women, and workplace flexibility — to stabilise fertility without infringing on personal choice.
The economic realities of child-rearing further undermine the logic of these appeals. The financial burden of raising children — encompassing education, health care, and childcare — continues to grow. Instead of addressing these systemic issues, urging families to have more children deflects responsibility onto individuals, disproportionately impacting those already facing economic hardships.
India’s diverse demographic landscape demands policies and programmes that are tailored to the unique needs of its states, which are at varying stages of demographic transition. Instead of imposing population control by diktat, India must focus on empowerment through thoughtful, inclusive policies. This includes investing in accessible family support systems, such as affordable childcare and education, to reduce the economic burden on families. Addressing labour imbalances through migration from high-fertility regions to states with workforce shortages is another pragmatic step. Most importantly, promoting gender equality through workplace flexibility and shared care giving responsibilities will enable women to balance career aspirations with family life without undue pressure.
Poonam Muttreja is executive director, Population Foundation of India.The views expressed are personal