India is in the seventh week of the lockdown. During lockdown 2.0 and 3.0, many economic activities have been permitted with certain safeguards. In rural areas and in green zones, almost all economic activities are now allowed but these are not proving to be enough to lift the tempo of our nation’s production cycle. It is estimated that nearly 15-20 crore people are sitting at home without any avenue of productive economic activity. Certainly, this situation is not sustainable for long and some well-considered and bold decisions have to be taken to pull the country out of this state at the earliest.
Today the decision makers are caught in the catch-22 situation. If the government reopens the economy and the virus spreads rapidly leading to a large number of deaths, they will be criticised for opening the economy too early. And if they do not open the economy, the economic situation will undoubtedly worsen and possibly lead to catastrophic results. No doubt, the number of coronavirus infected persons has increased to beyond the 50,000 mark and the number of fatalities are nearing 2,000. But the question is should we or should we not extend the lockdown further and with what restrictions?
During the past three months, the world has learned a lot about this Sars-CoV-2 virus; its nature, pathology and measures to help serious patients recover. The Indian Council of Medical Research has already recommended prophylactic doses of Hydroxychloroquine and Azithral for doctors, nurses and paramedics taking care of coronavirus patients. In various countries, medicines such as Remdesivir, Lopinavir-Ritonavir, Plasma therapy and antibody injections have been tested to treat coronavirus patients and have been found to be quite useful in treating acute coronavirus patients. Several coronavirus vaccines are at an advanced level of trials. Several Indian pharma companies are hopeful that sooner than later, India will be producing vaccines for its population. All these developments give rise to the hope that in the fight against this virus, the victory is in sight.
Experts across the world are of the opinion that infections of coronavirus, for unknown reasons, have been very mild in India. Our hospitals have not been overwhelmed by coronavirus patients anywhere, As per the information available in public domain, there are still very few coronavirus patients requiring ventilator services. The Lok Nayak Jai Prakash Narayan hospital in Delhi has arranged 80-odd ICU beds with a ventilator facility. But there are never more than single digit patients requiring ventilator support. The same is true for almost all the major coronavirus hospitals across the country. So it can be inferred that the impact of Covid-19 in India is mild and the number of patients who require ventilator services has been negligible in our context. Now compare it with tuberculosis, or TB, which causes more than a thousand deaths every day in our country. We have more than 25 lakh confirmed cases of TB even today. Fortunately several potential medicines for treating corona are beginning to appear on the shelf, and as per available indications, vaccines for this virus will be out in the market sooner than anybody had expected.
{{/usCountry}}Experts across the world are of the opinion that infections of coronavirus, for unknown reasons, have been very mild in India. Our hospitals have not been overwhelmed by coronavirus patients anywhere, As per the information available in public domain, there are still very few coronavirus patients requiring ventilator services. The Lok Nayak Jai Prakash Narayan hospital in Delhi has arranged 80-odd ICU beds with a ventilator facility. But there are never more than single digit patients requiring ventilator support. The same is true for almost all the major coronavirus hospitals across the country. So it can be inferred that the impact of Covid-19 in India is mild and the number of patients who require ventilator services has been negligible in our context. Now compare it with tuberculosis, or TB, which causes more than a thousand deaths every day in our country. We have more than 25 lakh confirmed cases of TB even today. Fortunately several potential medicines for treating corona are beginning to appear on the shelf, and as per available indications, vaccines for this virus will be out in the market sooner than anybody had expected.
{{/usCountry}}No doubt the lockdowns have served the purpose, but now the country has to focus on the economy. Daily wage earners are on the verge of starvation, the number of unemployed has reached an all-time high and supply chains are completely disrupted. To reverse the situation, all economic activities need to be opened up except cinema halls, sports, educational institutions that can open after some time. Restrictive opening is not helping the cause. People have fully understood what they need to do to prevent getting infected, now they should be tasked to follow the necessary precautions at their workplace. Testing and treatment facilities for all those showing symptoms have to be ensured in all government and private hospitals.
The central government has lost nearly Rs 3 lakh crore by way of revenue and states nearly Rs 2 lakh crore that will need to be recouped by borrowing from RBI directly, so that the government system comes back to its optimum health. Businesses, small and big, will need to be provided loans for their working capital requirements without any delay. The labour force is desperate and eager to go back to work. They have survived the worst.
Time and again, countries, societies, businesses, people have gone through these kinds of situations and with prudent handling, they come out strong. The time has come to prove again that nothing is beyond collective human endeavour. Finally we have had enough of this all pervading coronavirus fear, now we need pragmatic, positive and bold action.
(VS Pandey is a former IAS officer. He retired as secretary, department of fertilisers in the Government of India)
The views expressed are personal