The M&M factor in Indo-French relations
Common strategic goals, business interests and personal chemistry between leaders seem to be driving the relationship
French President Emmanuel Macron has just concluded what may turn out to be a seminal visit to India. Of course, the visit was high on pomp, circumstance and symbolism. After all, he was the guest of honour at the Republic Day celebrations, which is all about pageantry. However, it is important to look beyond the obvious and examine the geo-strategic implications of the visit.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Macron get along well. The M&M (Modi and Macron) factor has done three things to the strategic partnership: Served as ballast, expedited decision-making and provided a vision. In doing all of this, it has helped overcome bureaucratic inertia and straitjacketed thinking.
The latest visit must be situated against the backdrop of cascading turbulence which characterises the global strategic landscape. Two major wars are underway, one in Ukraine and another in Gaza. Global economic recovery appears difficult. International trade is sputtering thanks to the fragmentation of the multilateral trading system and a moribund World Trade Organization (WTO). The preeminent global power, the United States (US), is not just facing domestic political uncertainty but also confronting questions about whether it has the strategic bandwidth to face all of the above.
To face this unprecedented geo-strategic instability, India needs a foreign policy that is based on risk mitigation, diversification and multi-engagement. While the US will always be a key strategic defence partner for India, it will, from time to time, be subject to some domestic pulls and pressures and external factors such as the state of Sino-US relations. With Japan, the case for foreign direct investment in Indian manufacturing is strong but the potential for defence and security cooperation is somewhat limited.
About Russia, it is noteworthy that even foreign minister Sergei Lavrov has said Moscow understands that India wants to diversify its defence ties with other powers.
Given the above scenario, the strategic partnership with France assumes tremendous importance. Indo-French ties are based on strategic convergence and autonomy and an all-party consensus in their respective countries. This plus the exceptional personal chemistry between Modi and Macron has made the Indo-French strategic partnership a truly unique one.
Considering that Modi had gone to Paris only in July of last year to participate in the Bastille Day celebrations, and given that they had agreed on a detailed document “Horizon 2047”, it would have been unrealistic to expect dramatic announcements from the current visit. The most significant and substantive outcome to emerge from this visit is the “Roadmap for Indo-French Defence Industrial Partnership”. While the document itself is classified in nature, there are enough tell-tale signs to indicate that the roadmap signals the fundamental transition from a buyer-seller relationship to co-design, co-development and co-production for not only fulfilling the defence needs of the Indian armed forces but also to provide a reliable source of defence supplies to other friendly countries. This is an ambitious roadmap that will not just contribute significantly to “Aatmanirbhar Bharat” but also to the “Make in India” initiative. There are references in the joint statement to progress in the establishment of maintenance, repair and operations not just for aircraft engines by French firm SAFRAN but for Rafale engines as well. A comprehensive partnership between SAFRAN and Hindustan Aeronautical Limited (HAL) is envisaged for the development of multi-role helicopter engines with 100% transfer of technology. In addition, Scorpene submarines will continue to be built in India with substantial indigenisation on the cards. Airbus in partnership with Tata Advanced Systems will begin assembly of civilian helicopters in India, a first for the private sector of both countries. The interoperability of joint defence exercises was acknowledged, and the two sides will now consider a distinct joint tri-services exercise. Space has now been put at the heart of the relationship. The two countries have cooperated in the space sector for over six decades and the institutionalised Strategic Space Dialogue, launched in June 2023, will take things forward. Indeed, one of the outcomes is the letter of intent between the ministries of defence of both countries on defence space partnership. Clearly, defence and space will drive this partnership.
Interestingly, the two sides make a mention of the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC) which many believe is difficult given the war in Gaza. Not only have the two sides reaffirmed the strategic importance of this initiative, but Modi welcomed the appointment by Macron of a special envoy for the project. Perhaps, India should do the same to maintain the momentum of this vital project.
The future of the strategic partnership will, obviously, hinge on innovation and technology. Both sides decided to intensify cooperation in Artificial Intelligence, advanced computing and digital public infrastructure.
The French President has set his heart on France receiving 30,000 Indian students by 2030. This is eminently possible. The two leaders reiterating their firm support for an India-European Union Free Trade Agreement is extremely welcome and should be one of the main trade policy objectives for India after the general elections.
India has some 30-plus strategic partnerships with countries around the world. Some of them are based on mutual necessity and political expediency. The Indo-French partnership, on the other hand, is based on mutual choice and has the potential to fundamentally reshape the global strategic landscape.
Mohan Kumar is a former ambassador to France and is dean/professor, OP Jindal Global University. The views expressed are personal
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