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PMC estimates 22k positive cases by June end; stares at shortage of ICU beds, ventilators
As of May 22, the city had 4,398 progressive positive cases out of which 1,786 are active cases admitted in various hospitals
Going by the current number of positive and active cases and the doubling rate of about 14 days, the Pune Municipal Corporation (PMC) has estimated about 22,940 progressive positive cases and at least 9,743 active cases in the city, according to a Covid-19 dashboard report prepared by the Smart City war room.
The estimated projection also highlights that the civic body stares at a shortage of at least 216 ICU beds and 107 ventilators by the end of June.
As of May 22, the city had 4,398 progressive positive cases out of which 1,786 are active cases admitted in various hospitals.
According to experts, the gaping difference in the requirement of health infrastructure versus the increasing patients will add to the civic body’s troubles.
As per the Covid-19 dashboard report prepared by the Smart City war room, the estimated projection is calculated on the assumption of average growth of 2.19 from the last seven days before May 21 wherein the doubling rate of positive cases is 14 days.
The estimated number of cases is rising drastically putting pressure on the existing health infrastructure which has led the state government to take over about 80 per cent of the beds in charitable hospitals for Covid-19 patients.
As per the report by May 28, the city will have 5,317 progressive positive cases, by June 3 this will rise to 6,963 cases, by June 17 cases will go up to 12, 896 and by June 30 this figure will rise to 22,940 progressive positive cases.
Ramchandra Hankare, chief medical officer, PMC, said, “Going by the current rate, there may be a shortage of ventilators and ICU beds which are required for critical patients. Even though the progressive count may be over 22,000, but the active cases load would be around 9,700.”
“We are in the process of taking over the beds at private hospitals as per the state government resolution (GR) for which we will have a meeting with the private hospitals. By taking over the beds at private hospitals we will not face scarcity of ventilators and ICU beds even if the cases reach those numbers,” he said.
As of May 18, the civic body has 48 Covid-19 dedicated facilities which have 9,850 isolation beds, 3,539 isolation beds without O2, 2,122 isolation beds with O2, 271 ICU beds and 137 ventilators. For every one ventilator, the PMC has two ICU beds.
Dr Abhijit More, public health expert said, “The state government’s order has come at the right time and so if the private hospitals cooperate well, this shortage can be managed very well.”
“On the other hand, the PMC is now failing at managing non-Covid-19 patients and they are being ignored. A lot of their OPDs are shut and they are recruiting doctors for just 45 days and asking nurses to deposit a month’s pay. At the current situation anyone coming forward to work in the health sector is in itself a courageous thing to do,” said Dr More.
“Even if PMC fills in its own vacant posts a lot of shortage of manpower will be fulfilled. Even in these times PMC’s largest hospital, Kamala Nehru hospital does not have a functioning ICU facility, which in itself is a serious issue,” he added.
