Australian Open 2024 men's singles preview, prediction: Can Alcaraz, Medvedev or Sinner end Djokovic's Melbourne reign?

With Nadal's injury withdrawal, the opening Grand Slam tournament of the year returned to its usual plot - who can end Djokovic's reign?

For a brief while, the Australian Open expected a different theme for the 2024 edition, contrary to what the story has been at the Slams in the last 12 months. Rafael Nadal's spectacular return to action, after a year away with injury and surgery, in Brisbane sparked a possibility of a reunion with Novak Djokovic in Melbourne, thus adding to the most prolific rivalry in men's singles history. But the Spaniard pulled out of the Australian Open last Sunday, citing a fresh hip injury incurred during his tense quarterfinal loss in Queensland. The opening Grand Slam tournament of the year thus returned to his usual plot - who can end Djokovic's reign?

Serbia’s Novak Djokovic arrives to play a charity match against Greece’s Stefanos Tsitsipas ahead of the Australian Open tennis tournament at Melbourne Park (REUTERS)

Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev are the only players to have beaten Djokovic in a Grand Slam final in the last three years. Alcaraz did it more recently in the memorable Wimbledon clash last July, while Medvedev pulled off a straight-set win at the US Open in 2021. Then there is Jannik Sinner, who took down the 36-year-old twice in the space of a month last year - in the Davis Cup semis and ATP Finals. But can one of the trio emulate the same at a venue where Djokovic owns a staggering 89-8 record and has not lost a final in last five years.

FIRST QUARTER

The defending champion has been handed a very comfortable draw at Melbourne Park, thus making him the favourite to emerge out of the first quarter in a bid for an unprecedented 11th title in the Australian Open and a 25th career major. There are two former Grand Slam winners in his section - Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka, but struggle with repeated injuries throughout their careers, cutting down the threat they once possessed.

There is a possible reunion on the cards with Ben Shelton in the pre-quarters after they faced off each other in the US Open semis last year, while Stefanos Tsitsipas, who faces former Wimbledon runners-up Matteo Berrettini in his opener, could book a quarterfinal date with the Serb in a repeat of last year's summit clash.

Quarterfinal: Djokovic.

SECOND QUARTER

Fourth seed Sinner is a firm favourite in this section of the draw and would want to count his chances with Karen Khachanov being his first immediate threat. Sinner could face the Russian, who made the semis last year, in the fourth round, given that Khachanov overcomes a possible threat from Frances Tiafoe in the third round. This section of the draw also has local boy Alex de Minaur, who recently beat Djokovic in the United Cup. But the 10th seed has been handed a difficult round-one tie against former Wimbledon finalist Milos Raonic. The Aussie must also beat Andre Rublev, who won the Hong Kong title last week, in a projected pre-quarters match-up.

Quarterfinal: Sinner.

THIRD QUARTER

Medvedev should have been the Australian Open champion already, had it not been for Rafa doing Rafa things in that famous 2022 final. And that was his second consecutive loss in a final in Melbourne, having incurred a defeat to Djokovic in 2021.

The No. 3 seed will have a rather intriguing path at the Australian Open this year. He could face Felix Auger-Aliassime in the third round, against whom he had won a five-setter a few years back in Melbourne, before possibly taking on newly-crowned Brisbane International winner Grigor Dimitrov in the round of 16. Meanwhile, this section of the draw also has No. 8 seed Holger Rune, Brisbane runner-up, who arrived in Australia with a star coaching team comprising Boris Becker and Severin Luthi. But the youngster from Dane will need to overcome a possible threat of Hubert Hurkacz in the fourth round.

Quarterfinal: Medvedev.

FOURTH QUARTER

Like Sinner, Alcaraz, too, on paper, has a fairly decent opening set of draws. Having missed the 2023 edition due to an injury, Alcaraz will be hoping to rectify his record in Melbourne where he has never been into the second week of an Australian Open edition. He will have to get past Dan Evans or Lorenzo Sonego in the second round, Alexander Bublik in the third and Tommy Paul in the fourth. However, his biggest threat lies in Alexander Zverev, no. 6 seed, who won four of his five matches at the United Cup before landing in Melbourne.

Quarterfinal: Alcaraz beats Zverev.

Semifinal: Djokovic beats Sinner; Medvedev beats Alcaraz.

Final: Djokovic beats Medvedev.