Dollar dips as polls show Harris-Trump race on knife’s edge: Markets wrap
The dollar fell as investors walked back bets on Donald Trump winning the US presidential election after the latest polls indicated no clear advantage for him.
The dollar fell as investors walked back bets on Donald Trump winning the US presidential election after the latest polls indicated no clear advantage for him. Oil rose after OPEC delayed an output hike.
An index of the greenback dropped the most in over two months, with the US currency down against major peers such as the yen, the euro and the Australian dollar. Treasury futures rose.
The moves came after a poll by the Des Moines Register showed Kamala Harris with a 47%-44% lead in Iowa — a state Trump has won in each of his prior elections. One element of the so-called Trump trade favors higher Treasury yields and a stronger dollar. Still, other surveys show the two candidates poised for a photo finish, with voters narrowly split both nationally and across the pivotal swing states.
The dollar gauge and 10-year Treasury yields both had reached their highest since July in recent weeks, after investors ramped up wagers on a second term for Trump. There’s concern that his support for looser fiscal policy and steep tariffs will deepen the federal deficit and fuel inflation, undermining Treasuries.
“It’s impossible to call at this point,” Bill Maldonado, chief executive officer at Eastspring Investments, told Bloomberg TV. “We’ve heard Trump talking about tariffs and other measures, but do we really know what’s going to get implemented in what manner? It’s almost impossible to position for it.”
Shares rose in Asia, led by those in South Korea and Australia. US stock futures edged up after Wall Street’s gains Friday following robust earnings from the likes of Amazon.com and Intel Corp. Japanese markets are closed for a holiday, which means there will be no Treasuries trading in Asian hours.
In addition to the US election, trading across financial markets this week also will be shaped by central bank decisions for the US, UK and Australia, among others.
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points Thursday, after the latest jobs data showed US hiring advanced at the slowest pace since 2020 while the unemployment rate remained low. Even so, the numbers were distorted by severe hurricanes and a major strike.
Economists also expect the Bank of England to lower its benchmark rate by a quarter point to 4.75%.
Oil, Gold
West Texas Intermediate, the US crude benchmark, rose more than 1% Monday, as OPEC agreed to push back its December production increase by one month and Iran escalated its rhetoric against Israel.
In China, officials unveiled steps to attract foreign money just days before US elections that have raised concern about the impact on the world’s second-biggest economy from a return of Donald Trump to the White House. Foreign individuals are now allowed to provide capital for publicly traded firms as strategic investors, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the Commerce Ministry and four other regulators said in a statement late Friday.
Elsewhere in China, the country’s Standing Committee of National People’s Congress meets in Beijing Monday through Friday, as investors watch for any approval of fiscal stimulus to revive the slowing economy.
Key events this week:
- India HSBC Manufacturing PMI, Monday
- US factory orders, Monday
- Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI, Monday
- China’s Standing Committee of National People’s Congress meets through Nov. 8, Monday
- Australia rate decision, Tuesday
- China Caixin Services PMI, Tuesday
- Indonesia GDP, Tuesday
- Philippines CPI, Tuesday
- South Korea CPI, Tuesday
- US trade, ISM Services index, Tuesday
- US Presidential Election, Tuesday
- Brazil rate decision, Wednesday
- New Zealand unemployment, Wednesday
- Poland rate decision, Wednesday
- Taiwan CPI, Wednesday
- Vietnam CPI, trade, industrial production, Wednesday
- ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks, Wednesday
- China trade, forex reserves, Thursday
- Eurozone retail sales, Thursday
- Mexico CPI, Thursday
- Norway rate decision, Thursday
- Peru rate decision, Thursday
- Sweden rate decision, CPI, Thursday
- UK BOE rate decision, Thursday
- US Fed rate decision, initial jobless claims, productivity, Thursday
- Brazil inflation, Friday
- Canada employment, Friday
- Chile CPI, Friday
- Taiwan trade, Friday
- US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
- Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
- S&P 500 futures rose 0.2% as of 2:24 p.m. Tokyo time
- Nikkei 225 futures (OSE) rose 1.3%
- S&P/ASX 200 futures rose 0.6%
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was little changed
- The Shanghai Composite rose 0.3%
- Euro Stoxx 50 futures were unchanged
Currencies
- The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.6%
- The euro rose 0.6% to $1.0896
- The Japanese yen rose 0.7% to 151.93 per dollar
- The offshore yuan rose 0.6% to 7.0925 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
- Bitcoin fell 0.2% to $69,004.87
- Ether fell 0.1% to $2,466.25
Bonds
- The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 10 basis points to 4.38%
- Australia’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.56%
Commodities
- West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.7% to $70.68 a barrel
- Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,741.84 an ounce