More than 2,300 years after Alexander the Great is said to have confronted the Gordian Knot while pursuing the Persian Empire, President Trump and his administration face their own conundrum in Iran. Mr. Trump is caught between political constraints that prevent using adequate military force to change Tehran’s behavior and a defiant regime willing to risk severe economic pain to rebuff Washington’s demands.
The White House seems to have settled on a campaign of economic pressure, a pause of sorts until after the Nov. 3 U.S. midterm elections or the new year. (Bloomberg FILE)
The White House seems to have settled on a campaign of economic pressure, a pause of sorts until after the Nov. 3 U.S. midterm elections or the new year. The risk is that such a containment policy could ossify into a stalemate that the regime will claim as a win. After defying America’s dictates, Tehran would end up with de facto control of the Strait of Hormuz and its axis of resistance, while diminished, still potent in the Shiite Crescent.
Slicing through this Gordian Knot and arriving at a satisfactory outcome, namely a subdued or new government in Tehran, depends on two lines of effort: waging economic warfare against the regime’s revenue sources and rallying partners to undermine Iran and its proxy network in the region. Mr. Trump should give Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Secretary of State Marco Rubio a blank check to strangle the Iranian economy—above all, sources of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps funding—and to launch a focused diplomatic effort. This effort would be backed by judicious use of force, leveraging regional allies’ capabilities to kneecap pro-Iran militias in Iraq, the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Iran’s divided leadership is already on the back foot internally and regionally. The Trump administration can damage the regime in both theaters and hasten its demise. Domestically, four popular uprisings since 2018—including nationwide protests this year—illustrate the Iranian people’s discontent with dire economic conditions brought on by the policies of a doctrinaire, venal and inept regime. The already frail economy is reeling from an estimated $270 billion in damage to infrastructure from U.S. and Israeli airstrikes—equivalent to about 60% of Iran’s annual output.
Oil exports have fallen by more than 70% since the onset of the U.S. Navy’s blockade of Iranian ports. In the past two months, actions by the Treasury Department have further squeezed Tehran’s access to revenue from oil sales and from illicit financial networks. Mr. Trump should let Mr. Bessent turn up the economic pressure on China and other countries providing support to Tehran.
In addition to new sanctions against Iranian actors and third-party enablers of illicit transactions, the Treasury, State and Justice departments should vigorously enforce existing sanctions, including by going after shadow intermediaries and transshipment hubs, whether based in Shanghai, Singapore or Dubai. Sustained economic pressure will exacerbate inflation, capital flight and the banking crisis in Iran. The regime’s grip on power will almost certainly slip as the economy buckles under this campaign.
Iran’s regional proxy apparatus has been badly mauled in the series of conflicts precipitated by Hamas’s October 2023 attack on Israel, by the fall of the Assad regime in Syria in late 2024, and by American and Israeli airstrikes in the past six months. New governments in Beirut and Baghdad have shown a willingness, albeit tentative, to rein in Iran-backed militant groups.
Much work remains to degrade Iran’s ability to unleash proxies to attack America’s Gulf allies, Israel or U.S. interests elsewhere—as well as its ability to dictate political developments in Beirut and Baghdad. President Trump should empower Mr. Rubio to enlist Arab allies in a campaign to weaken Iran and its regional proxies.
Leaders in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar—all economic and strategic partners of the U.S.—know that Iran crossed a Rubicon with its missile and drone attacks on their capitals and infrastructure. They and other Arab governments, though threatened by Iran, appear incapable of projecting unity or conviction. U.S. diplomatic engagement can reassure and galvanize our regional allies.
A campaign led by Mr. Rubio can bolster efforts to degrade Iran-backed militias in the region. American-led diplomacy can help resolve differences between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh over Yemen and the Houthis. It can facilitate Gulf allies’ respective roles in strengthening new governments in Baghdad and Beirut as they put pressure on Iran-backed groups and improve overall governance.
Political and other domestic constraints have hobbled American presidents’ willingness to commit the military force necessary to achieve their objectives for the past 35 years. The Trump administration is no different: The president is unlikely to commit to a sustained bombing campaign, let alone boots on the ground. Fortunately, Mr. Trump—like Alexander the Great in 333 B.C.—has a way forward, one requiring patience and coalition-building, reinforced by military threats and actions.
Mr. Hood is a senior fellow at Hudson Institute’s Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East and a former U.S. diplomat with multiple postings in the Persian Gulf.
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