More ‘City-killer’ asteroid warnings emerge amid added fears of Moon impact: No time for NASA to deflect it?
Independent scientists are also weighing in on the onoing hot discussion about asteroid 2024 YR4, which has a little over 2% chance of hitting Earth in 2032.
The fear-inspiring ‘city-killer’ asteroid 2024 YR4, likely bigger than the Statue of Liberty, now has a higher risk (2.3%) of hitting Earth on December 22, 2031, per scientists’ upgraded predictions.
According to the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the space rock’s “risk corridor” spans the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia, Forbes reported. A potential collision with our planet could result in “severe blast damage” up to 31 miles (50 km) from the impact site. The asteroid discovered late last year is believed to be about 40 and 90 metres (130 and 300 ft) in diameter.
Amid the rollout of preliminary predictions, independent scientists have been brewing chilling updates on social media. London-based volcanologist Dr Robin George Andrews and University of Arizona’s Catalina Sky Survey’s operations manager Dr David Rankin’s contradictory claims surrounding the ‘city-killer’ asteroid’s apocalyptic impact have further pushed netizens into a worrisome blackhole of insecurities and fears.
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Although international space agencies have enlisted the help of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) for more accurate estimations of the space rock’s size to, in turn, deduce how much damage it is capable of, the current number suggests that it could take out an area the size of Washington DC, per SWNS.
DART - that knocked Dimorphos off course in 2022 - also not enough against 2024 YR4?
Video simulations of the rock’s potential Earth collision have also been going viral online since the asteroid's chance of clashing with Earth was upgraded from 1.2% to 2.3%. On one hand, Dr Robin George Andrews claims “we might not be able to stop 2024 YR4” from hitting Earth, even with the DART (the Double Asteroid Redirection Test) spacecraft’s help. On the other hand, Dr David Rankin’s forecast of the dire impact seems somewhat reassuring.
Pointing out that we have “less than eight years to potentially deal with it,” Dr Andrews asserted, “You need 10 years or more to build, plan and execute an asteroid deflection mission.” He theorised, “With only a few years down the line, we could accidentally deflect it — but not enough to make it avoid the planet. Then, it still hits Earth, just somewhere else that wasn’t going to be hit.”
Moon also in the city-killer asteroid's path?
Dr Rankin’s discourse also questions the moon’s safety. His calculations suggest that it has a 0.3% chance of being deeply impacted. The New Scientist further reported that our natural satellite doesn’t have an atmosphere to shield it like the Earth, which means that YR4 would hit at around 30,000 miles per hour.
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The aftermath could potentially result in an explosion creating a crater between 1,640 to 6,500 feet across – an explosion 343 times the size of the Hiroshima bomb. Nonetheless, Rankin assured in a Blue Sky Social post, “There is the possibility this would eject some material back out that could hit the Earth, but I highly doubt it would cause any major threat.”
Despite his detailed explanation, he also stressed, "the odds of an impact remain low,” especially with just a 1-in-43 chance of the 2024 YR4 hitting Earth in 2032. “As of now, there is still a 97.9% chance of a miss with respect to Earth,” Rankin added. “This asteroid is nothing to lose sleep over.”