Trump impeachment row: 28% chance that POTUS will be removed before 2028; Iran war haunting him

Trump's Truth Social post threatening Iran's entire population has driven his impeachment and 25th Amendment odds to record highs.

Since President Donald Trump issued a dramatic threat against Iran’s entire population, the chances of him being impeached or removed from office have reached their highest point yet. Markets that track political bets now show a growing belief that Trump could face impeachment or even have the 25th Amendment used against him, all in response to his alarming comments about Iran.

Trump’s Iran threat sparks impeachment fears. (AFP)

Kalshi, a major prediction market now says that there is a 27.5 percent chance that Trump will be impeached and removed before the end of his term. At the same time, the odds of the 25th Amendment being used against him rose to 33.2 percent on Tuesday, both record highs since Trump was re-elected in November 2024.

The 25th Amendment allows the vice president and a majority of the cabinet to declare the president unable to fulfill his duties, which would then give executive power to the vice president.

What triggered the surge

The increase in impeachment and 25th Amendment odds came after Trump posted on his Truth Social platform, appearing to threaten the destruction of all of Iran’s population if the country did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz to cargo ships by 8:00 pm Washington time.

"A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again," Trump wrote. "I don't want that to happen, but it probably will," he continued, adding, "Maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS?" He ended the post with, “God Bless the Great People of Iran”, even though he had started with a threat to destroy them.

Marjorie Taylor Greene slams Trump

Former MAGA Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene criticized Trump sharply, writing, “25TH AMENDMENT!!! Not a single bomb has dropped on America. We cannot kill an entire civilization. This is evil and madness," on X.

Greene has repeatedly blasted Trump over his Iran policies. In February, after the US launched what Trump called a "massive and ongoing" operation against Iran’s missiles and navy, she posted a nearly 700-word criticism on X, saying that, "Thousands and thousands of Americans from my generation have been killed and injured in never ending pointless foreign wars and we said no more. But we are freeing the Iranian people. Please."

She also rejected Trump’s justification for the strikes, adding, "There are 93 million people in Iran, let them liberate themselves. But Iran is on the verge of having nuclear weapons. Yeah sure."

Greene accused Trump of betraying the voters who brought him back to the White House, writing, “It's always a lie and it's always America Last. But it feels like the worst betrayal this time because it comes from the very man and the admin who we all believed was different and said no more.”

However, Greene is not the only one who spoke against Trump, Dozens of Democratic lawmakers also joined the chorus, calling for the president to be removed either through impeachment or the 25th Amendment. Massachusetts Representative Seth Moulton wrote on X, "This is not normal. This is not just 'Trump being Trump.' This is an insane man who is unfit for office, and needs to be removed immediately."