What is a ‘red mirage’? Tricky phenomenon can shatter Republicans' hopes of victory

Election Day mirages could be caused by quick ballot counts, and they may not be good news for candidates hoping to win.

Election Day mirages could be caused by quick ballot counts, and they are considered not to be good indicators of the candidate who will win. An Election Day red or blue mirage is when a candidate in an election leads early after the polls close, until other methods of votes are finally counted.

What is a ‘red mirage’? Tricky phenomenon can shatter Republicans' hopes of victory (Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg) (Bloomberg)

According to NewsNation’s political editor Chris Stirewalt, what you see as shifts in voting patterns is in fact a predictable pattern based on how votes are counted in different areas. “It doesn’t matter which piece you put in, first or last in a puzzle. It doesn’t change the picture. The image remains the same,” Stirewalt said.

It is essential to wait until all the votes are counted. Swing states can sway both ways as the day rolls out.

What is a ‘red mirage’?

The ‘red mirage’ phenomenon is simply an expectation that Republican voters are likely to cast their votes in person, while Democrats are likely to do so by mail. This is a dynamic that can lead to GOP candidates seeing an early lead which might later actually fade when mail-in ballots are counted.

Put more simply, a red mirage describes a situation where Republican candidates may appear to have an outsized amount of support as votes are reported on Election Day. However, in the days that follow, there can be a shift towards Democratic candidates.

Vote counting generally moves from “outside in,” as it begins with rural areas and then moves through suburbs before reaching dense urban centres. “The less populous parts of the country count faster because the precincts aren’t as crowded,” Stirewalt said. “There aren’t as many ballots to count in individual places, and the lines aren’t as long in all of these places.”