J&K elections: BJP needs to fight public perception in the Valley, not just fight with proxies
New political fronts that came into existence post-abrogation of Article 370 in 2019, apparently backed by the BJP, have failed to take off.
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) repeat its 2014 electoral performance in the Jammu province? Both likely and unlikely. On one hand, they are still believed to hold considerable support in the Hindu-dominated areas. On the other, the Congress, under Rahul Gandhi, has rejuvenated in the region and, together with their key ally, the National Conference, they are poised to make significant inroads.
Staying away from the three seats of Kashmir during the recently held Lok Sabha elections, the BJP is eyeing significant gains in the Jammu region once again. In Kashmir, where they have yet to secure any assembly seat, the BJP is aiming for a breakthrough this time and is expecting to win at least 10 seats.
However, it remains to be seen how the party will keep itself intact, especially in light of internal divisions that emerged after prominent leaders were excluded from its initial list of candidates. The old guns were replaced with new faces as well.
Albeit, the BJP has an edge in the elections in the six seats of Jammu that were created in May 2022, by the Delimitation Commission formed by the Union Government. The commission recommended seven additional constituencies — six for Jammu and one for Kashmir — taking the total number of seats in the newly created Union Territory (UT) to 90 from 83 earlier.
This raised the number of seats in the Jammu division to 43 from 37 seats earlier, and in the Kashmir Valley to 47 from 46 earlier. The new seats will certainly benefit the BJP in the elections. For the first time, the division of seats, and power, between the two regions is more balanced.
Also, the Lieutenant Governor of Jammu and Kashmir will have powers to nominate five persons to the Assembly including two Kashmiri Pandits one woman and one Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) refugee with voting rights.
However, certain pockets of the Hindu-majority region are apprehensive about land and job rights in the wake of the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019. It remains to be seen whether this anxiety will be reflected in the assembly election.
If the BJP secures 30-35 seats from Jammu, it could potentially claim the remaining seats from the Valley to form the government. However, if their tally falls below 20 seats, it will be challenging for them to establish a majority.
In Kashmir, the party is facing challenges even though it has made significant inroads. However, they are still relying on allies and proxies.
Sensing gaps in its electoral plans for the Valley, the party is apparently backing independent candidates covertly. The idea, according to BJP members who asked not to be named, is to get 30-35 seats from Jammu and “double digits” from the Valley to form the government.
However, it seems that the BJP’s aim, to have a maiden chief minister from the majority community and form the government without any support of a regional party, is a challenging one, given the party’s limited presence and lack of electoral success in Kashmir.
The new political fronts that came into existence after the abrogation of Article 370, apparently backed by the BJP, have also failed to take off. Their performance in the paramilitary elections remained abysmal, with many leaders losing their security deposits due to insufficient vote shares.
The biggest failure with these parties is that all of them have accepted or have been comfortable with what happened on August 5, 2019, when J&K’s special status was abrogated. The ground sentiments in Kashmir are pretty clear: Those parties opposed to Delhi have relevance. The new fronts are now struggling to get rid of the BJP tag
Many defectors from these parties are now seeking to survive politically by aligning with established parties like the National Conference (NC), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Indian National Congress (INC).
While the BJP has promised development, tourism, jobs, social welfare, and financial assistance to women and farmers, it is struggling to resonate with the local sentiments in the valley. The party emphasises the Union government's development initiatives in J&K following the abrogation of Article 370 as a key part of its poll plank. On the other hand, the regional political parties in J&K have pledged to restore Article 370 of the Indian constitution—a key demand that symbolises the region's autonomy and identity, which continues to resonate with the local populace.
The PM Narendra Modi-led government have taken many initiatives for the region’s development including curbing terrorism, halting strike calls from separatists, reducing stone-pelting incidents, and lowering local recruitment into militant rank. However, the party is yet to flourish in the Valley and it remains to be seen whether it will finally break the ice and form its own maiden government in J&K.
Auqib Javeed is an independent journalist based in Jammu and Kashmir.
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