Maha News | The battle for 48 sends all parties in search of winnable candidates

The BJP wants to address anti-incumbency, the new Sena and NCP have depleted bases, and the MVA must set its sights on fewer seats.

For the past few weeks, the two rival alliances in Maharashtra have been trying to work out a seat-sharing pact between the allies for the Lok Sabha elections. It may be announced any day now. Maharashtra will see a direct contest between the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and three-party Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA), which is part of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), the national coalition of Opposition parties.

The Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) has finalised a seat-sharing agreement for 39 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra (HT PHOTO)

The pulls and pressure of allies delaying a seat-sharing pact is a common phenomenon seen in most elections. It has become important this time because of the importance of 48 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra—the second highest in India after Uttar Pradesh.

The BJP-led alliance won a maximum number of seats from Maharashtra in both the 2014 and 2019 general elections, which was one of the reasons why it won a clear majority. In 2014 and 2019, it won 42 and 41 Lok Sabha seats from the state, respectively. In both elections, it was a contest between the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance and the Congress-Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) alliance.

In 2019, the BJP won 23 of the 25 seats it contested while the Shiv Sena won 18 of the 23 it contested. The Congress contested 25 seats, but won only one seat, while the NCP contested 19 and won four. The other two seats were won by the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) and an independent candidate (backed by the NCP).

Amid speculations that the NDA tally could reduce in some areas, the contest for 48 in Maharashtra has become intense. For the first time in the state’s history, six prominent parties are contesting the election in two alliances. Besides them, four parties — Prakash Ambedkar-led Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA), Hitendra Thakur-led Bahujan Vikas Aghadi (BVA), Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) and Asaduddin Owaisi-led AIMIM — could influence elections in several seats and play spoilsport.

This makes the upcoming election a close contest and seat-sharing, a complex strategy.

In the ruling camp, the BJP is not willing to take any chances even if that means upsetting its allies a bit. It could garner 41 seats in the last elections and now it has to reach close to the tally. Till a year ago, its internal surveys showed that things were not a cakewalk for the party in the state—even reaching a halfway mark would have been a task had the MVA done well. With the split in the NCP in June 2023, things have changed. According to the BJP’s assessment, it needs to contest close to 35 seats.

“Chief minister Eknath Shinde and deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar have limited strength. As such, the entire responsibility of getting candidates elected will be ours in several constituencies. In that case, what is the point in giving seats to allies? We are on stronger footing than our allies in such constituencies and hence want to field our candidates even if the sitting MP is from our alliance partners,” said a senior BJP leader involved in preliminary seat-sharing talks of the three parties. The BJP has told its allies that they can’t win certain seats if contested by them.

For instance, the Ramtek constituency in Nagpur district has a Shiv Sena MP, Kripal Tumane, who was elected as the Sena and was in alliance with the BJP. Now the Sena, led by Shinde, does not have a strong base in most of the Vidarbha region. As such Tumane cannot get elected unless supported by the BJP. “Our assessment shows that a candidate on our symbol has a better chance of winning in Ramtek. As such, we have staked a claim on the seat though Tumane was one of the 13 Sena MPs who joined the Shinde camp after the split,” said a top BJP functionary in the state. So far, Shinde has not accepted this argument.

Besides, the BJP doesn’t want certain MPs from its allies to contest again as the feedback it has received from the constituency is against them. It is also dropping a significant number of its own MPs to beat incumbency. This is the reason the seat-sharing is not getting finalised.

“We had two crucial meetings. First, Union home minister Amit Shah discussed issues with Shinde and Ajit Pawar in Mumbai on March 5. Later, Shinde, Pawar and deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis held discussions with top bosses in Delhi [last Friday]. We are expecting that our seat-sharing will be finalised this week,” said a top BJP functionary.

Meanwhile, the MVA must resolve its own set of problems. The three parties have to work out a pact under which they can earn maximum seats. Before the split in NCP and the migration of several leaders such as Ashok Chavan to the ruling camp, the Opposition assessed that they could win up to 30 seats. Now they are aiming for roughly half of the 48 seats. Even that would make a dent in NDA’a tally, they think. According to MVA leaders, they are considering the winnability of the candidate as the top priority while deciding the seat-sharing. For instance, Pawar himself gave up the claim on the Raigad seat which his party won in 2019 as Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Anant Geete is seen as a strong candidate to oppose Sunil Tatkare, who is with Ajit Pawar-led NCP now. Similarly, Uddhav Thackeray has given up his claim on the Kolhapur constituency where the three parties decided to field Shahu Maharaj who may contest on the Congress or NCP (Pawar faction) ticket. In 2019, it was won by Sanjay Mandlik as Shiv Sena nominee.

“All three parties know their strength is depleted and as such winning every seat that we can, matters. Besides, winning 20-something seats will give us a strong base for the assembly elections which will be held six months later,” said a top Congress leader.

The MVA’s bigger headache is turning out to be negotiations with VBA’s Prakash Ambedkar. “VBA has been demanding 12 seats while we can offer him 3-4. There could be negotiation further but his overall approach and public comments criticising our coalition is making us wonder if he really wants to be part of MVA and INDIA,” said a senior NCP leader. “Some of us are convinced that he will make an excuse and contest separately once the election dates are announced. We are working on plan B which includes getting a few more smaller allies including Dalit outfits on board,” he added.

Shailesh Gaikwad, political editor of HT Mumbai, breaks down the most important political news in Maharashtra this week