WTO lifts 2004 trade growth forecast to 8.5%

WTO raised its forecast for 2004 global trade growth to 8.5 per cent on Monday despite surging oil prices.

The World Trade Organisation (WTO) raised its forecast for 2004 global trade growth to 8.5 per cent on Monday despite surging oil prices.

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In April, the Geneva-based body forecast that goods trade would grow 7.5 per cent year-on-year against 4.5 per cent in 2003.

The WTO said oil price rises could dampen trade and economic growth in 2005, but stronger than expected performance in certain countries and regions, including China, Latin America and Africa, were outweighing the impact of fuel prices this year.

"The vigorous trade expansion observed in the first half of 2004 is expected to provide enough momentum to raise global trade volume by 8.5 per cent," it said in an advanced release of some statistics from its annual trade report.

"Growth in world trade in 2004 will not be adversely affected by higher oil prices to any great extent because we are seeing good growth in trade and output in China, Latin America and Africa," WTO Director General Supachai Panitchpakdi said.

"We are also seeing stronger than expected economic recovery in Japan," he added.