Chandigarh’s Covid tally to double in a month, predicts Centre
The projections have been made for October 13 using mathematical modelling based on trends on September 13Updated: Sep 18, 2020, 22:32 IST
Confirmed Covid-19 cases in Chandigarh will be around 14,500 by mid-October, leading to a requirement of more intensive care unit beds and ventilators, projections made by the central government have suggested.
The projections have been made for October 13 using mathematical modelling based on trends on September 13. The exercise has been carried out by the ministry of health and family welfare to assist states and Union Territories in augmenting the available infrastructure.
There were 7,480 Covid cases in Chandigarh on September 13, which are projected to reach 14,376 on October 13, with 4,160 being active. The UT administration had earlier predicted that around 1% of the total population will be infected, and at the pandemic’s peak, 3,600 people will have active infection. The projected numbers are way beyond this figure.
30% shortfall in ICU beds, 10% in ventilators
The model suggests 15% (624) of the active patients will require oxygen support and 5% (208) will be admitted in ICUs, of which 50% (104) will require ventilator support on October 13.
Though oxygen beds are in surplus with 820 available on September 13, there are only 160 ICU beds and 95 ventilators, with the shortfall in ICU beds being as high as 30% and in ventilators 10%, according to the projections.
A patient who is having mild respiratory symptoms requires low-level oxygen supply that can be provided in general wards with beds having oxygen supply, said Prof Pankaj Malhotra of the Postgraduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh, while explaining three different levels of clinical management for Covid-19 patients depending upon there oxygen saturation levels. ICU beds are for patients requiring high-flow oxygen supply through advanced modes. Patients with pre-existing disease, such as renal failure, are also admitted to ICUs, where a few patients may also require ventilator support, he said.
‘Requirement will be lesser than that projected’
Questioned about the shortfall in infrastructure for critical cases, UT health secretary Arun Gupta said that taking into account the present trend, the requirement will be less than that shown in mathematical projections made by the ministry.
Of the present 3,200 active cases, just around 5% need oxygen support and only 2% are in ICU, he said.
The Centre in its report has said that states may appropriately modify the estimates by factoring in variables, such as local surveillance, positivity rate, the extent of testing and hospitalisation data. It has added that comprehensive plans should be made and steps may be taken for augmentation of facilities.