5 yrs on, BJP, Sena bicker over big brother tag?

With the alliance intact and the seat-sharing agreement nearly sealed, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Shiv Sena are all set to go before the people of

With the alliance intact and the seat-sharing agreement nearly sealed, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Shiv Sena are all set to go before the people of Maharashtra seeking a re-election. The five years of the saffron combine in power have been marked with bickering and bitterness from the Sena as the ‘big brother’ status was gradually eroding with the rise of the BJP.

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The Sena is attempting to regain the lost status by demanding the chief minister’s post for half the term, if the two parties return to power. With no significant portfolio with itself, Sena leaders said they could not make any decision to impact the policy in the state. With “equal sharing of posts and responsibilities” between the Sena and BJP, as announced by chief minister (CM) Devendra Fadnavis in February, the party intends to regain its say in the state government.

Since July, the Shiv Sena started projecting Thackeray scion Aaditya, who could contest the polls, as its CM candidate. The Sena has indicated that equal sharing of posts and responsibilities includes the top post in the state, and has staked claim to it. For Sena, securing the CM post for half the term would help it retain the status of ‘big brother’ in Maharashtra.

Political analysts believe that the Sena has lost the position to the BJP in 2014. Analysts say and has now been reduced to play second fiddle as the national party has grown in strength since it came to power at the Centre in 2014.

With the BJP returning to power at the Centre with a thumping majority in May 2019, the party is aiming to wrest control of the Maharashtra Assembly on its own. The BJP could offer the Sena around 125 seats for the upcoming state polls, while keeping the other seats for itself and its smaller allies. Thackeray, who has been maintaining that the “formula” has been decided before the Lok Sabha polls, would have to decide whether to take fewer seats to keep power or snap the alliance to save pride. Party functionaries said they hope to get a “respectable” number of seats.

Prakash Bal, a Mumbai-based political analyst said the single-party dominance has emboldened the BJP to dictate the terms. He said the Sena has no bargaining power and will have to agree to what is offered by the national party. “All these talks about [seat-sharing] negotiation are sham, the BJP is dictating the terms. The big brother status has gone in 2014. He (Thackeray) had the chance to give an outside-support to the BJP and keep its importance intact, but it could not stay away from power,” Bal said.

However, Sena leader and Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Raut dismissed the notion that his party has been dislodged as the ‘big brother’ in Maharashtra. “The big brother status does not depend on how many seats a party is contesting or how many MPs and MLAs it has. Single party dominance does not last for long in such a vast country like ours. We have seen single-party dominance in Nehru’s time and Indira Gandhi’s time, but it did not last forever,” he said.

Bal pointed out that the trends show that wherever the BJP has aligned with the regional party, it has marginalised it or has decimated it. “We have seen the BJP doing so in Goa and to an extent in Bihar with Nitish Kumar. They intend to do the same with the Sena. Their plan is [to win] the BMC polls two years down the line. They want control of the BMC to decimate the Sena,” he opined.

However, the dilemma for the BJP is that it shares a common vote bank with the Sena on the Hindutva plank. If it goes without the Sena, it risks splitting the pro-Hindutva vote bank. As for the Sena, tagging along with the BJP is crucial because senior party leaders could switch over to the party if the alliance snaps.

Riding high on the success of Lok Sabha win four months ago, the BJP is unlikely to give up the CM post for half a term, analysts opine. “The CM had announced many things, but he hardly follows up on the promise. Similarly, the announcement of sharing of posts, including the CM post, will not materialise. The BJP is in a position to come to power on its own,” said Pratap Asbe, a political analyst. Bal added that the BJP will not need the Sena in the government; the latter will be given some “minor departments”. “This happened in the Centre too. As all NDA partners are playing second fiddle, Sena will do the same in Maharashtra.”

According to Raut, the Sena did not have any “important” portfolio that would “shape” policy in the current state government. “There was no alliance in 2014, we were in Opposition for two months, and then we joined the government to keep it stable. In these five years, we did not have important portfolios that would make policies… We did not have much role in policy-making for the state. We raised our voice on issues that we did not like…like farm loan waiver, crop insurance issue. We will continue to raise our voices,” he said.