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Close contest: Will BJP buck the trend of Himachal voting out incumbents
With most of the exit polls predicting a tight contest in Himachal Pradesh, all eyes are now set on the final outcome on December 8 whether the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would be able to break the 37-year-old trend in the state, which votes out incumbents every five years
With most of the exit polls predicting a tight contest in Himachal Pradesh, all eyes are now set on the final outcome on December 8 whether the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would be able to break the 37-year-old trend in the state, which votes out incumbents every five years.
The elections to the state assembly were held on November 12 while the term of the present government ends on January 8, 2023.
Since 1985, the state has been electing the Congress and the BJP to power on alternate basis. In 1985, the Congress had bagged 58 seats in the 68-member House. Virbhadra Singh, who was the chief minister then, had contested from Rohru and Jubbal-Kotkhai segments. He won from Rohru but lost to former chief minister Thakur Ram Lal at Jubbal and Kotkhai.
However, in 1990, the political landscape again changed with the BJP winning 46 seats, reducing the Congress to just nine.
The election in 1998 resulted in the hung House with both the Congress and the BJP winning an equal number of seats — 31 each. The BJP had managed to form the government by allying with the Himachal Vikas Congress (HVC), which bagged five seats. This was the first time in the hill state that a coalition government (through a post-poll alliance) came into power.
The government changed again in 2003 as the Congress won 43 seats while the BJP could manage only 16. Independents secured six seats, while regional parties got two seats.
In 2007, the BJP wrested power from the Congress by winning 41 seats. In 2012 elections, the Congress won 36 seats as well as the popular vote, putting Virbhadra Singh back in the saddle. The BJP had bagged 26 seats then.
In the last assembly elections held in 2017, the BJP won 44 of the 68 seats, while Congress secured 21 seats. Though the BJP had won a two-thirds majority, its chief ministerial candidate Prem Kumar Dhumal lost in the Sujanpur assembly segment. The BJP then picked up Jai Ram Thakur for the top slot.
Ramesh Chauhan, a political science professor at Himachal Pradesh University, Shimla, says the politics in the state is likely to remain bipolar this time too as the local or regional parties would have a negligible impact. However, the rebels might queer the BJP and the Congress’ pitch, he adds.
This year’s election is different in many ways. It was for the first time that both the main parties contested without veteran leaders at the helm – Virbhadra Singh and Prem Kumar Dhumal. This election will also mark a transitional shift in leadership in both the parties. The Congress infighting had come to the fore much before the polls, while the BJP faced the worst rebellion with 21 rebels in the fray.
BJP’s national president JP Nadda had himself led the campaign in his home state, while Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Union home minister Amit Shah and UP chief minister Yogi Adityanath were the star campaigners of the party. Compared to the BJP blitzkrieg, the Congress campaign was subdued with Priyanka Gandhi addressing five election rallies and party president Mallikarjun Kharge attending just one. The party banked on state leaders to reach out to voters.
The AAP’s campaign, which started even before October 14 when the election commission announced the poll date, lost steam midway as its supremo Arvind Kejriwal and Punjab chief minister Bhagwant Mann shifted focus to Gujarat. The BJP projected Jai Ram Thakur as its chief ministerial candidate, but the Congress and the AAP rested their bets and did not reveal their CM face.
While the BJP led its power-packed campaign with the motto: “Raj nahin, rivaaz badalna hai (will change the tradition, not the rule)”, the Congress relied on “Rivaaz nahin, raj badalna hai”.
There are total 412 candidates, including 24 women, in the fray in HP which has 55,92,828 voters. The state had registered a poll percentage of over 75%.
Will win more seats than projected in exit polls: Jai Ram
Himachal Pradesh chief minister Jai Ram Thakur on Tuesday said the BJP will win more seats than projected in surveys and form the government with a thumping majority.
Speaking to the mediapersons, Jai Ram said the BJP was ahead in most of the exit polls.
The biggest challenge before Himachal was the lack of connectivity, he said, adding, “In last five years, the rural connectivity has improved and we have broken the records of all previous governments in providing road links to the villages.”
“We need to make concentrated efforts to improve the road, railway and air connectivity,” the CM said.
“The exit polls have predicted the BJP’s victory. The double engine government has delivered more than it promised in the state,” said party’s vice-president Rajeev Bhardwaj.
