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Guest column: Russia-Ukraine war, recession cast a long shadow on 2023
As the world battles inflation in the new year, the coronation of King Charles, the Cricket World Cup will provide some diversion
With the Russia-Ukraine war casting a long shadow on global politics and economies, the prognoses for 2023 seem grim.
The battle will rage on as the USA and Europe support Ukraine with arms and advice, while Vladimir Putin and his closeted allies continue the offensive to keep NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) forces away from the Russian borders. US president John F Kennedy had fought back valiantly when he discovered Russian missiles in Cuba in 1962, and Putin will fight too. A miserable pickle indeed.
Peace might return if Russia and Ukraine agree to ceasefire and resume dialogue. So far, at least 2 lakh Russian and Ukrainian soldiers have lost their lives. As per the UN, around 6,755 civilians, including 426 children, have lost their lives in the war.
Germany and other European countries will augment their defence budgets. After the Russian invasion, Europe will not take defence for granted anymore. The West may be anxious to spread its model of democracy globally. However, it has to be patient and let countries evolve.
President Joe Biden could play the role of an elder statesman and bring the warring sides to a dining table. However, he will be preoccupied, readying for the 2024 re-election as mercurial Donald Trump is also threatening to throw in his hat. Politics could get turbulent in the USA.
UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is likely to have a tough year battling inflation, labour strikes and Scottish desires for independence. Come May, King Charles will be crowned and royal pageantry will mesmerise the world. Croatia will join the European Union.
Brazil’s president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will struggle to unite a deeply fractured country. China will continue to fight against Covid for the first six months of 2023. It should be open to buying high-quality vaccines from India and the West. USA and China will continue to vie for global leadership.
In India, Modi too, will galvanise for elections in 2024. Qatar will enjoy augmented global shine, after the FIFA World Cup. Expect other Arab countries, such as Saudi Arabia, to bid for future global sports events, even the Olympics.
Economic ramifications
The world will be economically disconsolate in 2023 due to the Russia-Ukraine war. As Ukraine is the leading producer of wheat, maize and sunflower, importing countries such as Egypt will suffer shortages, leading to higher prices. Russia is deploying its gas-supply as a strategic weapon in the war. Expectedly, after imposing sanctions, Europeans are bracing for a bitter winter.
Alas, 811 million people in our warring world, will continue to sleep hungry every night. Another 289 million migrants are searching for countries to live in. Hopefully, climate change will be in focus.
Inflation is exceptionally high in the USA and Europe. These countries which barely had an inflation rate of 1% per annum are reeling from 7- 11 percent inflation. This is corroding people’s incomes. In developing countries like India, governments will come under pressure from common citizens for augmented levels of monthly cash payouts and handouts.
Stock markets will remain tepid, given the turbulent politics and economics. Expect gold to hover around USD 1,840 per ounce. Oil prices will range from USD 76 to USD 90 a barrel. So, expect global growth of about 2.5%, maximum. USA and Europe could struggle at around 1% each.
India may delight with a 5% growth. However, it is not enough. In 2023, India’s population will exceed that of China. It will be the most populated nation globally, with 1.43 billion people. People must be fed and clothed, but India has around 8% unemployment.
Cricket cup
The tendency to work from home will decline. Only white-collar corporates can work from home. Managers have to lead teams, which is best done face-to-face.
Sometime in 2023, the new James Bond actor will be finalised. The 13th World Cricket Cup will be hosted by India. Another carnival. Hopefully, Messi will continue to play football. Every sport is now an industry with astronomical gains for organisers and players.
With technological advancements, get ready to fly in space. Drones may start delivering groceries soon. Netflix and other OTT steamers will continue to provide continuous entertainment from across the world. If you over-indulge, be ready to suffer sleep-deficit. Prepare to give up all privacy as telephones, internet, cameras, and TVs record your activities constantly.
In 2023, my soulmate Patricia wants to travel to Australia for the FIFA Women’s Football Tournament. I wish to stay at home due to inflation. Let’s see. Normally, Patricia prevails.
rkaneja@anejamanagement.com
(The writer is a Mumbai-based management consultant. Views expressed are personal.)
