Uttarakhand to begin carrying capacity assessment of 15 hill towns after monsoon

Uttarakhand chief minister Pushkar Singh Dhami in January this year had announced the state government will conduct a carrying capacity assessment of hill towns after conducting a ground survey of Joshimath town, where geological instability aggravate

The Uttarakhand government will begin the carrying capacity assessment of 15 hill towns, including popular hill destinations, Mussoorie and Nainital, after the end of the monsoon season, a senior official said on Saturday.

The 15 hill towns, where the carrying capacity assessment will be conducted, include popular hill destinations, Mussoorie and Nainital. (File)

Carrying capacity is the maximum population size that an ecosystem can sustainably support without degrading the ecosystem. Uttarakhand chief minister Pushkar Singh Dhami in January this year had announced the state government will conduct a carrying capacity assessment of hill towns after conducting a ground survey of Joshimath town, where geological instability aggravated. Dhami had then said that if there are more constructions than the carrying capacity of the towns, then constructions will be immediately stopped in such towns.

The 15 towns (in Garhwal and Kumaon divisions), where the assessment will be carried out are Gopeshwar, Karnaprayag, Tehri Garhwal, Uttarkashi, Pauri Garhwal, Lansdowne, Mussoorie, Nainital, Pithoragarh, Almora, Bhowali, Ranikhet, Kapkot, Dharchula, and Champawat.

“The bidding for the empanelment of expert agencies for carrying capacity assessment of 15 hill towns has been completed. We will begin the assessment of these towns after the end of the monsoon season,” said Dr Ranjit Kumar Sinha, secretary, Disaster Management, Uttarakhand. The Uttarakhand Landslides Mitigation and Management Centre (ULMMC) will take up the task after the empanelment of expert agencies.

Sinha said the exercise would be carried out in more hill towns (as per the requirement) in the subsequent phase. He said since the experts were already studying the situation in Joshimath, they haven’t included the town in the carrying capacity assessment.

Experts believe that overpopulation and unplanned construction work are increasing the pressure in hill towns of the state beyond capacity. Even though the exact reason for Joshimath geological instability is still unknown, the experts cite over population and unplanned construction and hydel projects as the possible causes for the prevailing situation in the town. Months later, Joshimath town continues to report cracks in new areas. The official figures say 868 structures have developed cracks and 181 have been declared unsafe so far.

In January, HT reported that towns like Uttarkashi, Tehri, Pauri and Karanprayag were also facing Joshimath-like phenomenon. Meanwhile, popular hill towns Nainital and Mussoorie are under threat. In February 2023, the National Green Tribunal (NGT) issued directions to the state government to conduct a study of the specific carrying capacity of the hill station. The NGT constituted a nine-member committee to suggest remedial measures for preventing environmental damage to the town. In May, a team of experts carried out an inspection of the cracks reported in Nainital’s Naina Peak and Tiffin Top areas. However, such examples are not new for the town. In 2018, a 25-metre stretch of the famous Mall Road caved into the lake waters. In August 2021, the other side of the lake, Thandi Sadak, witnessed a major landslide, with big boulders falling into the lake waters.

The experts say unregulated tourism into the disaster prone areas of the state is also taking a toll on the fragile ecosystem. In 2022, a record number of over 47 lakh pilgrims visited the Char Dham shrines in Uttarkashi, Rudraprayag and Chamoli districts of the state.

The Uttarakhand government earlier this year imposed daily limits of 19,000 for Badrinath, 16,000 for Kedarnath, 9,000 for Gangotri, and 5,500 for Yamunotri. However, the state government retracted its decision a day before the commencement of the yatra on April 22. The high-powered committee had suggested a daily limit of pilgrims to Char Dham shrines -- 5,000 a day in Kedarnath , 6,000 in Badrinath , 3,500 in Yamunotri, and around 4,000 in Gangotri.

Unplanned constructions in the hill stations tremble under weather events in geological fragile regions. The state has recorded over 7,750 extreme rainfall events and cloud bursts since 2015, according to a report of the Uttarakhand State Disaster Management Authority (USDMA). In the ongoing monsoon season, Uttarakhand has suffered a monetary loss of ₹ over 800 crore. Over 1,400 houses have been damaged. 77 people have also lost their lives in the rain-related events.

Hemant Dhyani, noted environmentalist and member of the Supreme Court-appointed high powered committee (HPC) on the Char Dham Project, welcomed the decision but said it should have been taken years ago. He said, “The Uttarakhand Action Plan for Climate Change, which came into force in 2014, talked about conducting carrying capacity studies, but nothing was done in this regard. Hopefully, it happens this time.”

Dhyani said, “The carrying capacity assessment should be carried out considering all ecological factors like water, climate change, disaster, resilience, landslides, and solid waste management. It should not be just about restricting people in one way and accommodating them in the other way. A sustainable and ecological approach should be there in the assessment.”

He said, “The government promotes the Char Dham pilgrimage, but forgets about the sensitive Himalayas and their limited bearing capacity. To accommodate lakhs of pilgrims, large number of constructions come up, even in eco sensitive zones. It’s totally contradictory. They (state government) announced a daily limit for Char Dham temples but even retracted that decision.”

Geologist Y P Sudriyal, adjunct professor at HNB Garhwal University, said the carrying capacity would make no sense if the government won’t take steps to stem migration to cities.

He said, “Uttarakhand needs proper planning to reduce the burden on our hill town. Just saying we will conduct carrying capacity won’t work. The concentration of population due to mass migration to hill towns is the major problem. First, we need to address that.”

“Then there is a huge influx of pilgrims and tourism that burden the hill towns. The government is building wide roads by cutting the hill slopes but doing nothing to stabilize them,” he alleged.